How Will Mark Sanchez Fare In His First Season?

Apparently, NFL coaches and GMs all read my Pre-Season QB Update article and decided that picking a starting QB was pretty essential to the success of their teams. In the past few days, both Shaun Hill and Mark Sanchez have won their respective battles at QB. While both players will be given their first chance to play an entire season in the NFL, all the talk is about Mark Sanchez in New York. So, what can we expect to see from the rookie signal caller in his first season?

Everyone knows Mark Sanchez’s story. As a Junior, he took the reigns of the USC Trojans and led them to a 12-1 record. That same year, he was named the MVP of the Rose Bowl. As draft rumors surfaced that Sanchez could be the second quarterback selected, Sanchez decided to forego his Senior season at USC and enter the NFL Draft. The Jets, desperate for a passer, traded up and selected Sanchez with the 5th pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. About five months later, he was named the New York Jets starting QB. That is a very short amount of time for one player to rise from college backup to NFL starting quarterback. Is this the right move?

Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan Started Immediately, but Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers Did Not.

The argument can really go either way when it comes to whether a rookie quarterback should start in their first year. Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer both sat their rookie seasons and developed quite nicely. Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan played right away, and both of them seem to be doing alright. While Ryan had success in his initial season, Manning and Troy Aikman suffered through very poor rookie seasons. Will Sanchez fall flat, or will he have success early on? 

With Sanchez, it’s tough to say. Sanchez is a bit of a statistical anomaly. According to David Lewin’s QB Projection System, the two biggest indicators of success at the NFL level are games started in college and completion percentage. While Sanchez does have a high completion percentage, he only started 16 games throughout his college career. Lewin’s system has actually been dangerously accurate. Although Lewin admitted that the 2009 Draft didn’t have many great pro prospects at quarterback, he rated Sanchez as the best of that group (yes, over Matt Stafford).  

What does this mean exactly? Well, it would appear that Sanchez, like most rookie QBs, faces an uphill battle. At USC, he played in a pro caliber offense and was able to succeed with elite college players around him. The NFL, however, is a different story. Looking at the numbers, Sanchez appears to have the deck stacked against him. However, looking at the player and the productivity, this is a quarterback with a lot of promise. Lewin compares Sanchez to Aaron Rodgers, which seems like a good thing. However, Rodgers had years to develop and learn the offense before he took over for the Green Bay Packers. That’s a luxury Sanchez will not be afforded.