Jason Campbell Enters A Critical Season

Jason Campbell enters 2009 at a career crossroad. After being selected with the 25th overall selection in the 2005 NFL Draft, Campbell was expected to provide stability at Washington’s quarterback position for years to come. Things have not gone smoothly for Campbell thus far in his NFL career. The Redskins were even rumored to be in the running for Jay Cutler and, when that fell through, Mark Sanchez. With Campbell in the last year of his contract, can he prove that he is the quarterback of the future in Washington?

Campbell came out of Auburn with some impressive numbers. The college star started a total of 39 games with a completion percentage of nearly 65%.  Campbell managed to accomplish this despite having to learn a new offense every season. In 2009, for the first time recent memory, Campbell will enter the season in the same offensive system in place. This is, obviously, a great advantage for Campbell as learning a complicated West Coast Offense sometimes takes a year or two.

Campbell Has Improved, But Is It Enough?

In 2008, Campbell appeared to be on his way to stardom. He threw 6 TD passes in the first four games of the season, and led the Redskins to a 6-2 record by week 8. At that point, Campbell still had not throw an interception all season. After week 8, the entire team, including Campbell, collapsed by going 2-6 for the rest of the season. Although Campbell only threw 6 INTs all season, he only threw 13 TDs in 16 games.

However, there is optimism for Campbell heading into 2009. One of the biggest reasons is that Campbell will finally get a chance to play in the same offense for more than one year. If you take a closer look at the stats, Campbell has improved in almost every passing category each season.

If you look closely, you can see some improvement in the numbers. If the Redskins really want to give Campbell a better chance at a breakout, they may want to use the shotgun more often. All advanced metrics indicate that Campbell’s performance rose considerably out of the shotgun. The Redskins, however, only ran the shotgun formation on 19% of plays last season. Campbell was also one of the more effective passers when hurried last season. While his career high in touchdowns is only 13, he hasn’t had a great supporting cast around him. Last season, the Redskins drafted Malcolm Kelly, Devin Thomas, and Fred Lewis to help improve the passing game. While all three players struggled in their rookie seasons, they are now a year older and have had another off-season to learn Jim Zorn’s complicated offense. The inexperience of those players may have been the reason that Campbell led the league in passes dropped by his targets.

Jim Zorn's Future In Washington May Be Tied To Campbell's Performance

There are, however, also reasons for concern. While Campbell only threw 6 INTs last season, he seemed unwilling to take risks. Usually, this is a good trait for a quarterback to have, but Campbell’s average of 5.86 YPA on 3rd and long isn’t going to get the job done in 2009. Campbell also plays in the tough NFC East and, therefore, has to play the Eagles and Giants defenses twice. While most of Campbell’s numbers has improved, his percentage of touchdowns thrown to attempts ratio has decreased in every season. Perhaps the biggest reason to be pessimistic about Campbell in 2009 is the fact that his organization wanted to replace him. It’s one thing if Daniel Snyder wanted to upgrade at Jay Cutler, but attempting a draft a quarterback with no NFL experience and very little college experience was a slap in Campbell’s face. It is unclear, however, whether Jim Zorn wanted to take Mark Sanchez in the draft. If that were the case, it would be the biggest indictment of Campbell’s ability. If Zorn doesn’t trust Campbell to run his offense, then there is no way Campbell has a future with the Redskins.

Thus far, Zorn has handled the situation well. Throughout both the off-season and the pre-season, Zorn has backed Campbell as the quarterback of the future in Washington. Football Outsiders own Doug Farrar has seen improvement from Campbell this pre-season. If Campbell is capable of reading through his progressions this season, he may not have to check down as often. For a quarterback like Campbell, taking a few more risks might actually benefit the young quarterback. I’m sure fans in Washington would accept a few more INTs as long as it came with a Pro-Bowl selection. Jason Campbell certainly has the ability to succeed in the NFL, but if he fails this season he may never get another opportunity to prove himself.