AP may be the best player in football, but is his team best in the NFC North?
2008 was another weak season for the NFC North. The Vikings, led by Adrian “All Day” Peterson and the Williams brothers, Kevin and Pat, on defense, won the division at 10-6 with a less than impressive +46 point differential. The Bears finished in 2nd place at 9-7, found themselves some nice offensive weapons in Greg Olsen and Matt Forte, while their defense had one of their worst seasons in the Urlacher era (2000-current). The Packers found out that Aaron Rodgers is for real, and they can really put up some points, but their defense struggled immensely. Finally, the part of NFC North that will stick with 2008 was the Detroit Lions. They struggled in every aspect of the game, went 0-16 for the first time in NFL history and the only bright spot was the emergence of Calvin Johnson as an elite receiver.
Minnesota Vikings
Key Additions: QB Brett Favre, QB Sage Rosenfels, WR Percy Harvin (Draft), WR/RS Glenn Holt, T Phil Loadholt (Draft)
Key Subtractions: QB Gus Frerotte, TE Jim Kleinsasser, C Matt Birk, DT Kenderick Allen, LB Napoleon Harris, LB Dontarrious Thomas, S Darren Sharper
How will Brett perform in Minnesota?
The biggest Vikings story from the end of last season to this year has been the on and off again pursuit of Brett Favre. Drama and distraction aside, the Vikings will ebb and flow with the decisions of Favre. If Brett throws the ball 500+ times, which I believe he will, the Vikings will be fighting for a wild-card spot and not the division. Conversely, if Favre hands off to AP and takes fewer risks in the passing game, I don’t believe will happen, the Vikings have as good a shot as the Bears and Vikings to win the division. On the defensive side of the football, the Vikings stop the run better than anyone in football, but struggle defending the pass. Combine that with the fact that the Vikings don’t force many turnovers, they need to be off the field as much as possible. Not in the sense that they are bad at football, but their strength comes from run defense and their front four being effective. If the Williams brothers, Jared Allen and Ray Edwards are blowing up gaps and getting to the Quarterback, the Vikings will be a strong defense once again.
Fantasy Sleeper: WR Bernard Berrian
With Brett Favre, the deep threat is active in Minnesota. Berrian is a speed receiver whose primary success comes with fly routes. Favre can throw that ball and Berrian could have 1,000+ receiving yards quite easily.
Chicago Bears
Key Additions: QB Jay Cutler, T Orlando Pace, G/T Frank Omiyale, SS Josh Bullocks, FS Al Afalava (Draft)
Key Subtractions: QB Kyle Orton, QB Rex Grossman, T Fred Miller, T John St. Clair, G Terrence Metcalf, S Mike Brown, S Brandon McGowan
Will Cutler lead the Bears to the playoffs?
Similar to the Vikings, the biggest Bears story has been the acquisition of Jay Cutler. Culter is an elite Quarterback, something that is new to this very old franchise. Cutler’s presence opens up Ron Turner’s playbook, something Turner has wanted to implement since his second stint as Bears offensive coordinator in 2005. However, the Bears lack the same weapons Cutler had in Denver the past three years. The Bears best two skill players are Greg Olsen and Matt Forte, and then it is a significant drop-off after them. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears have gotten worse the last two years from their top-5 defensive status in 2005 and 2006. I attribute this to the drop in DT Tommie Harris’ effectiveness. The Bears still lack a strong secondary, but have an outstanding linebacker corps. The defensive line is the key for Bears defensive success. If the front four get pressure on the QB and give the linebackers alleys to roam, they can be a top 10, even top 5 defense.
Fantasy Sleeper: WR Earl Bennett
Bennett was Cutler’s top receiver when they played at Vanderbilt. Bennett has been promoted to the starting wide receiver spot alongside Devin Hester. This is Bennett’s 2nd year in the NFL and he has good hands with good speed, and the word out of Bears camp is that he is catching everything Cutler’s throwing his way.
Green Bay Packers
Key Additions: DT B.J. Raji (Draft), OLB Clay Matthews (Draft), C Duke Preston, S Anthony Smith
Key Subtractions: DT Colin Cole, OT Mark Tauscher
No team was more unlucky last season than the Packers; they had a +39 point differential and went 0-7 in games decided by 4 points or less. The Packers offense lit up defenses last year and it has carried over to this preseason. The Pack has the
How well can BJ Raji play in his rookie season
potential to score on every possession. They have an elite QB, excellent WR corps, good RB in Ryan Grant and a decent offensive line. Offense isn’t the concern for Cheesehead nation, it’s the defense. The Packers played a laissez-faire defensive approach last year, and it was bad that not only did the Packers fire their defensive coordinator; they switched to a whole new scheme, the 3-4. The 3-4 defense has become more popular in recent years and the Packers brought in 3-4 defensive guru Dom Capers to run it. The concern I have, outside of switching to a whole new scheme, is that the heart of a 3-4 defense lies with the nose tackle’s ability to control the line of scrimmage and handle multiple blockers. The Packers entrusted this duty to first round pick, and hold out for nearly all of camp BJ Raji. Raji is expected to play one of the most important positions in football, despite injury and a lack of reps. The Packers improved their linebackers by putting Aaron Kampman at outside linebacker with underrated Brandon Chillar, AJ Hawk, Clay Matthews, Nick Barnett and Desmond Bishop.
Fantasy Sleeper: TE Jermichael Finley
Finley, 6-5, 247 lbs, is entering his second season in the NFL and has some great tools to play Tight End in the NFL. Finley played in 14 games last year, but wasn’t featured that much, but he developed well over the season. He is beating out Donald Lee for the starting Tight End spot and is tearing up training camp. In that offense, Finley should see his share of passes, and more importantly, Touchdowns.
Detroit Lions
Key Additions: RB Maurice Morris, T Ephraim Salaam, DT Grady Jackson, LB Larry Foote, LB Julian Peterson, CB Phillip Buchanon, QB Matthew Stafford (Draft), TE Brandon Pettigrew (Draft)
Key Subtractions: QB Jon Kitna, QB Dan Orlovsky, RB Rudi Johnson, WR Mike Furrey, WR Shaun McDonald, DT Shaun Cody, DE Jared Devries, CB Leigh Bodden
The Lions tried to distance themselves from the 0-16 season as quickly as possibly by drafting QB Matthew Stafford to be the face of the team. Last year, Detroit couldn’t get anything right, they blocked and tackled poorly with some costly
Lions Coach Jim Schwartz and Rookie QB Matthew Stafford
penalties. The Lions have a star in Calvin Johnson and a potential stud in running back Kevin Smith. Detroit added Ephraim Salaam, with linebackers Larry Foote and Julian Peterson to upgrade their blocking and tackling. Add Matt Millen’s departure with the 21st strongest schedule, the Lions will take some steps forward this year. The most important thing Detroit can do is to develop and play rookie QB Matthew Stafford. There is no point to trot out Daunte Culpepper for a team that is not going to sniff the playoffs this year. Jim Schwartz has a mess on his hands, but expectations could never be any lower for a new head coach. I look at week 3 vs. Washington for the Lions to snap their losing streak.
Fantasy Sleeper: TE Brandon Pettigrew
Pettigrew is the 2nd most talented player right now in the Lions passing game and was the first Tight End selected in this year’s draft. He is the most NFL ready of the rookie Tight Ends and has natural hands and rare athleticism. He could be a security blanket for Stafford on underneath routes. I wouldn’t draft him to be your starting Tight End, but consider him in the later rounds in deeper leagues.
2009 Projections
Chicago Bears: 11-5
Green Bay Packers: 10-6
Minnesota Vikings: 9-7
Detroit Lions: 4-12
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