Russell Needs To Succeed This Season

JaMarcus Russell’s rise from fringe draft prospect to number one overall draft pick happened all within the span of a season. In 2009, he faces a similar situation. A chance to prove, once again, that he can succeed at the highest level. Russell’s NFL career has seen more lows than highs and he risks being labeled as one of the biggest draft busts in NFL history if he continues to struggle at the NFL level. With the Raiders releasing veteran Jeff Garcia, Russell will get every opportunity to show why he was the number one overall draft pick in 2007. With his NFL career possibly in the balance, can Russell perform in a crucial season?

JaMarcus Rusell was likely a mid to late round pick before his Junior season at LSU. He played for a good team, with many talented players, but his stats were just average up to that point. Even coming into his Junior year, Russell was in a quarterback competition with Matt Flynn. Russell eventually beat out Flynn for the job and had a spectacular season for LSU. As a Junior, Russell threw for 28 TDs, 8 INTs, and completed nearly 68% of his passes. Russell decided to forgo his Senior season and jump straight to the NFL. Al Davis liked what he saw, and made Russell the number one overall draft choice in 2007.

Russell May Have Been Drafted Number 1, But He Has A Long Way To Go

In 2008, Russell’s season can easily be split into two halves.  Through weeks 1-9, Russell was completing only 49% of his passes. However, after week nine, despite a number of injuries, Russell’s completion percentage jumped to 62%. Russell also finished the season strong, throwing 2 TDs in each of his last three games. The Raiders also beat Houston and stunned Tampa Bay in the last two weeks of the season. Despite the strong finish, Russell threw only 13 TDs to 8 INTs during the year.

In 2009, Russell will have every chance to prove that he is an NFL starter and a player to build a team around. Russell comes into the season as the undisputed starting quarterback of the Raiders. Tom Cable felt so comfortable about Russell going forward that he did not hesitate to cut Jeff Garcia. Russell did show improvement at the end of last season, and also improved his completion percentage as the season went on. Even though his numbers don’t look pretty, Russell hasn’t had a lot of help on offense. In order to help Russell develop, the Raiders drafted speedster Darrius Heyward-Bey with the 7th pick in the draft. Even though Heyward-Bey’s selection was viewed as an over-draft, he might be the most talented wide receiver on this team. Drafting Heyward-Bey also allows Russell to show off his arm more often in 2009. Russell, who might have the strongest arm in the NFL, should enjoy throwing the deep ball to Heyward-Bey this season. Russell has also developed a nice rapport with Zach Miller, who is a popular breakout player this season.

Unfortunately for Russell, this is the Raiders we are talking about. Very few early round picks have developed well since being drafted by the Raiders (Fabian Washington, Michael Huff, Napoleon Harris, etc). This season, Russell could join that group. According to Pro Football Almanac, quarterbacks who have performed as poorly as Russell in their first two years rarely succeed in the NFL. Russell has played below replacement level both seasons in the NFL. The list of similar players is not pretty.

Tim Couch Was Drafted Number 1 Overall As Well. He Was Out Of The League After Six Seasons

The list also contains other colossal busts like Rex Grossman, Akili Smith, Danny Wuerffel, and Quincy Carter. Of course, it is possible that JaMarcus Russell becomes the first quarterback to emerge from this group as a solid NFL player, but history is not in his favor. Russell also has a poor work ethic and conditioning habits. Tom Cable has pushed Russell to condition himself better, and it seems to have worked. Remember, however, that there were rumors that Russell weighed close to 300 lbs in March of 2008. Also, despite the second half improvement in 2008, Russell’s completion percentage is a measly 53.9%.  Those numbers are not good enough to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, let alone on an NFL roster.

What does this mean for Russell and the Raiders? If you believe history repeats itself, Russell is in for a rough season. If you are an optimist, Russell did show improvement over the last season. However, that improvement might not be enough to save Russell in 2009. Unless Russell can come out of the gate and prove his improvement was for real in the second half, Oakland might regret letting go of Jeff Garcia.