Michael Crabtree Still Hasn't Signed

Michael Crabtree still remains the only first round draft pick that hasn’t signed an NFL contract. While minor injury concerns dropped him to the 10th overall pick in the draft, Crabtree was expected to be an immediate contributor at the NFL level.  It is now September 22nd, and Crabtree and the 49ers still seem miles apart on a contract. There has been more drama in this situation than you would find on most reality TV shows. Just within the past week, Crabtree has been criticized by Jerry Rice, was compared to the devil, and was part of a tampering charge against the Jets. In the August 26th podcast of the BS Report, Football Outsiders expert Aaron Schatz explained that Crabtree’s holdout most likely cost him the Rookie of the Year Award. This was a pretty surprising statement considering that very few rookie wide receivers make an immediate impact. If Crabtree signs by the November 12th deadline, what type of impact can he have on the team?

Even though Crabtree was considered one of the most NFL-ready prospects this season, it’s important to remember that very very few 1st round wide receivers actually pan out. Looking at recent drafts, picking a wideout first is a very risky proposition. For every Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson; there’s a Craig Davis, Rashaun Woods, and Charles Rogers.  Considering that Football Outsiders have, arguably, led the charge when it comes to advanced statistics in football, it was interesting to hear their creator putting so much stock into Crabtree. Does he really have what it takes to dominate from day 1? Consider that the last wide receiver to go over 1,000 yards in his rookie season was Michael Clayton, hardly a superstar.

Does Crabtree Have What It Takes?

The point is, even though Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, and Andre Johnson are considered the best players at their position, even they struggled out of the gate. The last wide receiver to actually win the Rookie of the Year award was Anquan Boldin in 2003. As you may recall, Boldin wasn’t even drafted in the first round, Arizona took Bryant Johnson with their first pick in 2003. Randy Moss was the last first round wide receiver to actually win the Rookie of the Year award in 1998.

Does Michael Crabtree actually possess the elite ability of a Randy Moss? According to Schatz’s publication, Pro Football Almanac, Crabtree had the highest Playmaker Score of all wide receivers in the 2009 draft. Through their research for the book this year, Pro Football Almanac determined that the highest correlation to wide receivers succeeding in the NFL was a combination of “average gain per catch, followed by touchdowns scored, total yards, and receptions.” Crabtree’s score of 21.3 was actually the fourth highest of all first and second round receivers taken from 2001-2006. His closest competitor in this year’s draft, according to Playmaker Score, was Jeremy Maclin at 10.0. That’s quite a distinguishable margin. However, it is important to note that Playmaker Score isn’t as accurate when it comes to picking the next star receiver as it is in determining the next 1st round bust.

Drug Addiction And Injuries De-Railed Rogers' Career

For example, the players that had a better Playmaker Score than Crabtree were Larry Fitzgerald, Charles Rogers, and Ashley Lelie. Considering the stats used, this does make sense. Both Lelie and Rogers were seen as tremendous speed wide receivers, thus their average yards per catch would likely be higher. Ashley Lelie played in a high octane offense at Hawaii, which likely lead to a high touchdown output. Rogers played at Michigan St., where he used his speed exploit some elite competition. However, it is important to note that drug addiction and injuries led to Rogers’ struggles at the NFL level. In his 14 games (excluding his 04-05 season where he injured himself about 5 minutes into the first game), he did manage to score 4 touchdowns. This shows that Playmaker Score isn’t perfect. The list of college wide receivers that had a Playmaker Score between 11-15+, is somewhat of a mixed bag. However, the players below that threshold were some of the colossal first round busts.

What does this tell us about Crabtree? Well, some of the advanced statistics indicate that Crabtree has what it takes to succeed at the NFL level. While Playmaker Score is not a sure thing when it comes to predicting NFL success, Crabtree is in the elite tier. This suggests that Crabtree has all the tools to succeed at the NFL level. Unfortunately, by holding out Crabtree has likely given himself little to no chance of proving that he deserved to be taken 10th overall. While it would have been difficult for him to win the Rookie of the Year award had he been in camp on time, it is doubtful that he would be in football shape at this point in the season. Even if he was in great shape, it would probably take a few weeks before Crabtree would get on the field enough to make an impact in the games. Sitting out an entire season is a risky proposition. John Elway was able to do it and, although he looked terrible as a rookie, ended up having an extremely successful career. Mike Williams and Maurice Clarett, however, suffered from sitting out an entire season of football. It would be wise for Crabtree to get himself into camp and try to get in football shape and see the field in 2009. He’s already cost himself millions of dollars in potential endorsements, and risks falling further in the draft if he re-enters in 2010. Crabtree certainly has what it takes to be the next superstar wide receiver, but if he doesn’t sign he risks being the next Mike Williams, Charles Rogers, Ashley Lelie,…well, there’s just too many to list.