Campbell Can't Beat The Lions

The JaMarcus Russell/ Jason Campbell bet continues this week. While one of our horses may have started to pull away, I can’t help but notice that there is a fatal flaw to our little wager this season.

Russell Could Get Used To The Bench

Is there really a winner in this bet? Honestly, can anyone really be considered a winner when this is all said and done? If both quarterbacks don’t improve quite a bit for the rest of the season, Monty and I just bet on which quarterback would be the least crappy…not which quarterback is better. I have never believed that JaMarcus Russell was a solid NFL quarterback. His rise from mediocre player to number one overall draft pick just didn’t seem right. Also, players like Russell, who rely on arm strength over accuracy, tend to be overrated by scouts and teams.  However, I am beginning to lose all faith in Jason Campbell. Campbell had a lot of positives going for him going into the draft. He had succeeded despite a different offensive system every season, he could read through his progressions, he was accurate, and he had adequate arm strength as well. In The Draft: A Year Inside the NFL’s Search for Talent a scout at an Auburn game praises Campbell for many of those reasons. He was liked by certain scouts, but statheads also saw ability in Campbell as well. With 39 college starts and a 64.6 completion percentage, Football Outsiders’ David Lewin projected Campbell to be a very good NFL quarterback. Unfortunately, Lewin also mentions Campbell’s lack of attempts in college. Campbell was surrounded by Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams and did not need to throw all that much during games. This, may have hindered Campbell’s development and made him look more impressive in the eyes of scouts and NFL teams. Enough about that, let’s take a look at the stats.

Campbell has pulled ahead nicely in Comp Pct, Pass Yards, and Rating at this point. However, it is important to note that Campbell’s Redskins lost to the lowly Lions this Sunday. This is the major flaw with Campbell, if you look at his individual game performances, you won’t find a bad performance. However, a look closer at the stats indicates a few important things. First off, the Redskins have won only one game this season. Typically, using wins as a statistic is a bad way to measure a quarterback (or a pitcher, for that matter). However, in the case of Campbell, wins can tell us a little something about his performances. In week 1, the Redskins trailed the Giants by 13 points with only 3:12 left to play. At that point, Campbell led the Redskins down the field and scored a touchdown to cut the lead to six. The Giants recovered the onside kick and the game was over. Campbell was able to lead his team down the field and score a garbage-time touchdown to make the game appear closer than it actually was. Yes, the Redskins needed to score in that situation, but the Giants had the game all but wrapped up at this point.

This Is A Shotgun Formation, Put Campbell In It Please

In week 2, Campbell “led” the Redskins to a win against the Rams. By “led,” I mean that he threw for 0 TDs against arguably the worst team in the NFL. Instead, the Redskins battled the Rams to a 9-7 victory. 9-7 against the Rams…not exactly the performance you would hope for out of a franchise caliber quarterback. Move forward to week 3, the Redskins trailed the Lions by 12 points with 5:26 to go in the game. Once again, Campbell had failed to put his team in a position to win the game. Campbell did lead his team down the field for a score, but it was a little too late for the Redskins.

What does this mean exactly? Despite decent numbers, Jason Campbell is not playing like a first round draft pick. He almost plays the game too safe. Two of his three touchdowns have come with his team down by more than one score with very little time left in the fourth quarter. By the time Campbell started playing well, the defenses were playing to prevent any deep passes, and the game was out of reach for the Redskins. There are, however, a few things that Campbell can do to start playing at a higher level. As I detailed in his Players At A Crossroads article, Campbell played well out of the Shotgun last season. Sure enough, when viewing the highlights from yesterday’s game, Campbell was being used in the Shotgun on that final scoring drive for the Redskins. As a matter of fact, go over to NFL.com right now and watch all of the Redskins game highlights. 95% percent of Campbell’s good highlights come out of a Shotgun formation. Against the Giants…he was in Shotgun on the scoring drive. You might also notice that on two seperate 4th and 1s near the goal line, the Redskins chose to run the football, and were stuffed both times. I have not seen much of the Redskins, but I would be interested in examining Jim Zorn’s play calling in the red zone this season.

Anyway, this has been your update of The Bet for week 3. Here is the upcoming schedule for our guys:

Tampa Bay @ Washington- This would be a good game for Campbell to get it going. The Bucs have the worst defense in football as ranked by Football Outsiders

Oakland @ Houston- Houston has a high powered offense, and it could force Russell to pass quite a bit next Sunday.