There Is No Buzz Surrounding Stafford Right Now

All around the NFL there has been talk about the incredible rise of the New York Jets. Led by a strong defense, and the surprising play of Mark Sanchez, the Jets have raced out of the gate to a 3-0 record. This had lead a number of analysts to anoint Sanchez as the next Matt Ryan or Ben Roethlisberger. Deadspin had fun pointing out the fact that everyone loves Sanchez’s “poise,” but Football Outsiders own Doug Farrar looked at the game tapes and dissected Sanchez’s play. The early results for Sanchez are promising. Farrar notes that Sanchez has good footwork, excellent intangibles, and a knack for the play-fake. However, very few analysts are focusing on number one overall pick, Matthew Stafford. Obviously, Stafford has not gotten off to a great start this season. However, he is working with a much less talented team around him. So, what is going wrong for Matthew Stafford?

Before looking at game tapes and highlights, I decided to check out some of the more insightful scouting reports on Stafford. CBSsports.com has an extremely detailed report on Stafford. This, of course, gave me a better idea of what to look for. There were two consistent criticisms of Stafford in most of the scouting reports I looked at: lazy/poor footwork and inconsistency on underneath routes.  Keeping that in mind, I found video and highlights at NFL.com. Since the NFL is very protective of their product, this was one of the best resources available for video. Fortunately, NFL.com has Stafford highlight from both week 1 and week 3. Unfortunately, they only have game highlights from week 2. Using all of my resources available, this is what I found.

Stafford's Arm Was One Of The Main Reasons He Went Number 1 Overall

One of the first things that jumps out about Stafford is his arm strength. Many scouts gushed about Stafford’s incredible arm strength, and I could see why. Stafford has the ability to thread the needle on a lot of throws. It’s clique to say that a quarterback can make all the throws, but from the limited number of throws he has had thus far, Stafford appears to have a strong enough arm by NFL standards. Unfortunately, some of the criticisms in Stafford’s scouting report were also prevalent in the game tapes.  Stafford does not always step into his throws. At times, he does not set his feet before throwing the ball. While his arm strength can mask his poor footwork at times, he is going to have to improve his footwork in order to succeed in the NFL.

Week 1, against the Saints, there were reasons for optimism as well as caution.  The Lions began the game with a few simple passes to likely build Stafford’s confidence. While Stafford completed some nice throws on the drive, he showed inconsistency with his footwork. On Stafford’s first interception, he does not fully step into his throw, which sails on him and lands right in the hands of Darren Sharper. As I stated earlier, Stafford’s arm can often bail him out of trouble, but when his footwork is poor, it will lead to overthrows and turnovers. On a fourth quarter completion to Bryant Johnson, Stafford takes the ball from under center, rolls out, does not set his feet, and throws a pass into coverage that Johnson bobbles and catches. His footwork was poor on the play, but his arm was able to bail him out of trouble on the play. Although, this was still a questionable pass.

All In All, A Poor Start For Stafford

However, there were also times when his footwork was on par. Unfortunately, these plays were met with mixed results. With roughly three and a half minutes left in the 3rd quarter, Stafford takes the snap out of the Shotgun, drops back, steps his feet, and throws the ball too far in front of Bryant Johnson. Even though Stafford’s footwork looks good on the play, his other criticism rears it’s ugly head on this play. Stafford was unable to throw an accurate intermediate crossing pass. Johnson was open on the play and it likely cost the Lions a touchdown. However, on the next play in the highlight reel, everything goes right for Stafford. He steps into his throw and fires a rocket to Calvin Johnson. This play likely sums up the reason Stafford was selected number 1 overall. He displayed sound footwork, and his cannon of an arm. Two other plays were I was actually impressed by Stafford were on his other interceptions. On the play where he throws his second pick, Stafford takes the snap out the shotgun, pump fakes to the left, sets his feet, and throws to the right side of the field. Unfortunately, it appears that the ball slipped as Stafford threw it, resulting in a wobbly interception.  Had the ball not slipped, this would likely be Stafford’s best play of the day. While he made a poor read on his third interception, Stafford showed good pocket presence on the play. He was able to step up in the pocket and set his feet before throwing the interception.

It’s hard to be too critical on Stafford in only his first NFL start. The problems that showed up in his scouting reports are the same problems that appeared in his first NFL start. His footwork is suspect at times, and will lead to poor passes. However, he has the elite arm strength to deliver solid passes when his footwork is sloppy. Obviously, this could be a problem for Stafford going forward. If he trusts his arm too much, like he did week 1, he is going to throw a lot of interceptions as a rookie. Then again, Peyton Manning set the record for interceptions by a rookie, and he turned out alright. Unfortunately, Stafford, like most rookie quarterbacks, made poor decisions on the plays where he did actually set his feet. However, when Stafford sets up properly and makes a nice read, it’s pretty remarkable to watch. Seriously, go watch that 3rd quarter throw to Calvin Johnson. Stafford steps up and fires a rocket about 20 yards down the field. He has a long way to go, but the ability is there.

* I initially intended for this to be a breakdown of all three of his starts, but this article ran a bit longer than I anticipated. Tomorrow, I will dissect Stafford’s performance in weeks 2 and 3. *

Coming tomorrow: Breaking Down Matthew Stafford: Weeks 2-3