Which Dodgers team will we see in the playoffs? The first half team, second half team or a whole new team?

How many of you would have guessed that the Dodgers have the best run differential in baseball? I can’t imagine too many.  As of today, the Dodgers lead MLB with a +163 run differential, 8 runs better than the 102-win New York Yankees. LA also leads the league in fewest runs allowed at 604. Yet, the Dodgers seem to be the trendy pick to get knocked out of the playoffs early.

2009 Season Recap: Looking back on the Dodgers 2009 season, a couple things stood out. First, they got out to a huge lead in the NL West and didn’t look back for a while. They finished the first half of the season at 56-32 despite missing Manny Ramirez from the beginning of May until July. Starters Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley were unhittable.

The second half was more of cruise control than anything else for the Dodgers. As of today, they are 2 games over .500 in the 2nd half. Chad Billingsley has struggled and LA has acquired Jon Garland and George Sherrill to boost their bullpen for the playoffs. LA making the playoffs has been a forgone conclusion since the end of May, but I don’t think anyone thought they would take this long to clinch the NL West. The Rockies are nipping at LA’s heels, and are within 1 game to tie the division lead. LA has clinched a spot, but have two more games with the Rockies to determine the NL West winner.

Date of Playoff Clinch: September 26th

Pitching: As a team, they are 7th in MLB in WAR, and 4th among playoff teams. They are 1st in MLB in team ERA, most in part to their bullpen.

Starters: Joe Torre will have to choose between Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Jon Garland and Vicente Padilla to make up his playoff rotation.

Randy Wolf-hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs since August 6th, that’s 10 starts. Including 2 ER or less in 8 of those starts. Will start Game 1 or 2 of NLDS

Clayton Kershaw-leads the Dodgers pitchers in WAR at 4.0. He has 175 K’s in 165 IP with a 2.89 ERA in his 2nd full season. Should pitch in Game 1 or 2 of NLDS.

Hiroki Kuroda-was expected to pitch game 2 of the NLDS but has been ruled out due to herniation of his cervical spine. Had a strong season nonetheless.

Chad Billingsley-Jekyll and Hyde season. His first half was incredible. His second half has been atrocious and may have played his way out the postseason rotation. He has recorded an out past the 6th inning one time since July 1st. Also, he has given up a HR in 7 of his last 8 starts.

Jon Garland-had a disastrous start to the season, but has recovered to his career averages in the 2nd half. He lives and dies with balls put in play.

Vicente Padilla-if the Dodgers are starting him, they could be in some trouble.

Relievers-no playoff team uses their bullpen to the extend LA does. They are 3rd in MLB with 542 IP and they have pitched really well. Leading the way in the bullpen has been Jonathon Broxton with a 2.9 WAR, then Ramon Troncoso, Ronald Belisario, Hong Chih-Kuo aka DRB’s man crush, and George Sherrill. This is the deepest part of the Dodgers.

Lineup-the Dodgers are 11th in Runs Scored and behind 5 playoff teams. Their recent lineup has looked like this…

Furcal

Hudson

Ramirez

Kemp

Loney

Loretta

Ethier

Martin

Pitcher

The lineup is anchored by: Manny Ramirez .398 wOBA, Andre Ethier .370 wOBA and Matt Kemp at .369 wOBA. When the playoffs roll around, I’d imagine these would be LA’s 3, 2, and 4 hitters respectively. James Loney at .332 wOBA and Russell Martin at .307 wOBA have been disappointing this season, with neither playing having an OPS over .720.

Casey Blake has been the 2nd most valuable Dodger hitter this year, in terms of WAR, and played his first game Friday since September 22nd. Blake will take over at 3rd when the playoffs start.

They do have the stolen base threats out of Kemp, Hudson, and Furcal. Juan Pierre has great speed, if they need to use him in a late game situation. On the whole, this isn’t a lineup that strikes fear in opposing pitchers, but you can’t fall asleep on them either. The middle of their order has been as good anybody’s and they have a good balance of speed and power.

Defense- The Dodgers are in the middle of the pack in terms of UZR. At 13th in MLB, that places them a distant 2nd behind the Phillies and ahead of the Cardinals and Rockies.

Best Defenders: Rafael Furcal ranks 3rd among SS at UZR, followed by Casey Blake, Matt Kemp and James Loney.

Worst Defenders: Andre Ethier’s UZR is at -14.1, then Manny Ramirez at -12.9. Juan Pierre isn’t very good in the outfield, but is an upgrade to Ethier and Man Ram.

Bench-features Jim Thome, Juan Pierre, Mark Loretta and Ronnie Belliard. Outside of Thome, those guys can play multiple defensive positions and are give Joe Torre flexibility when pinch hitting or double switching. If the Dodgers make the WS, Thome could be a huge asset at DH. This year he has a wOBA of .366 and walking 16% of time. Although his K% is at 34.1 and his Batting Average at .247, pitchers still fear him enough to pitch around Big Jim.

Coaching- Joe Torre is one of the finest in the game, enough said.

Reasons why they will win the WS-they are better than any team in baseball at run prevention. They are 4th in MLB in K’s and 1st among playoff teams. Their defense is better than most playoff teams. Broxton is having an excellent year closing games for them. Finally, they have the best run differential in baseball.

Reasons why they won’t win the WS- they have struggled in the second half playing only 2 games above .500. Their top 2 or even top 3 starters aren’t as good as St. Louis or Philadelphia’s, let alone Boston, and New York’s starters. The Dodger lineup is weaker than most playoff lineups in terms of runs scored. Their bullpen could struggle after their heavy work load this season.

Conclusion: Dodgers are a deep and well-balanced team. They are better than their 93-67 record indicates. They should be considered the favorites coming out of the NL based on their run differential and run prevention. They seem to be a trendy pick to lose early because of their poor play of late. With the way the MLB playoffs go, it wouldn’t be a shock if they lost in the NLDS.