MLB Playoffs Start October 7th

October 7^th. What is so special about that date? It’s the start of the 2009 MLB playoffs, and many of us at FoulPole2FoulPole.com have horses in this postseason race. FP2FP Co-Owner, Chris Cwik and I are White Sox fans, but their lack of a presence in this postseason doesn’t hinder either of our excitement. We have decided to do a thorough breakdown of each playoff team, giving you more than enough info about each of the 8 teams.

Let’s lay some groundwork regarding the MLB postseason before analyzing each team. Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus wrote a compelling piece in 2006 regarding factors that do and don’t matter in winning postseason games.

Historical characteristics that DON’T matter in terms of their relationship with winning post-season games and series…

1. Ending the year hot
2. Having a veteran club
3. A smallball offense

>>According to Baseball Prospectus

Historical characteristics that DO matter in terms of their relationship with winning post-season games and series…

1. A power pitching staff, as measured by normalized strikeout rate.
2. A good closer, as measured by WXRL.
3. A good defense, as measured by FRAA.

>>According to BP

Also, Dave Cameron notes that that teams that clinch first may suggest an early exit. That means the favored Yankees for this year. His research also shows that 5 of the 6 last World Series winners had 3 or less “meaningless” games.

So, what does all of this mean? Run Prevention has been the biggest key to Winning a World Series, but it is not a guarantee to win it. There is a lot of randomness in the postseason that would make me believe there is no “guaranteed” winner this year, or any year for that matter.

If you decide to debate which team is going to win it the World Series this year, keep these notes in mind and feel confident in refuting arguments regarding the hottest teams, or ones with playoff experience.