Are the Rockies a serious postseason threat?

Before the 2009 season, the Colorado Rockies traded their best player, Matt Holliday, to Oakland for Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith and Huston Street. Each of the four baseball writers for CBSSports.com picked the Rockies to finish 4th this season. They weren’t the only ones to think that. It is safe to say the Rockies are the biggest positive surprise this season in baseball.

The Rockies fought with the Giants, Braves and Marlins for the NL Wild Card. Also, with the Dodgers’ recent ineptness, the Rockies had a shot to win NL West. Colorado plays in a hitter-friendly Coors Field, park factor of 105 this year, and the Rockies know how to play there. They are 51-30 at home, the second best home record in the NL, and they boast the best home record among NL playoff teams. Finally, they have a +91 run differential entering the final game of the year.

Season Recap: Colorado got off to a rocky start. They finished May at 20-29. As a frame of reference, the Dodgers were 35-17 at the end of May. On May 29th, the Rockies fired then-manager Clint Hurdle and promoted bench coach Jim Tracy to take over the reigns. Six days later, the Rockies went on an 11-game winning streak. Under Jim Tracy this year, the Rockies are 74-41, compared to 18-28 under Clint Hurdle. Jim Tracy can’t be the lone reason for the Rockies success. Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki’s re-emergence has significantly improved the Rockies. Tulo leads Rockies hitters with a 5.5 WAR, followed by Todd Helton and Seth Smith! Seth Smith? All I remember about him was that he made the final out in the 2007 World Series. Also, the emergence of Ubaldo Jimenez has anchored a rotation that has surprised and impressed the rest of baseball. Colorado is finishing the season strong, going 20-10 since the start of September.

Date of Clinch: October 1st

Starters: Manager Jim Tracy will have Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Marquis, Jason Hammel, Jorge De La Rosa, and Aaron Cook to choose from for his postseason rotation. The rotation has a 19 WAR, and a big reason Colorado is in the playoffs.

Ubaldo Jimenez- Jimenez has taken a big step forward this season. The 25-year old has improved his K/9 to 8.17, lowered his BB/9 to 3.31 and sports a stellar 3.36 FIP. Jimenez has three great pitches: Fastball, Slider and Changeup. His fastball, on average, at 96 MPH, leads all starters in baseball. Jimenez should start game 1 of the NLDS.

Jason Marquis- while Jason isn’t as dominant a season as Jimenez, but his story is certainly the best. Marquis came over from Chicago as their 5th starter, and emerged as a number two starter for a while this season. Marquis was selected to his first all-star game, pitched a career-high 212 innings and tied his career high in wins with 15. Marquis isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, but he his cutter and slider have induced several ground balls. Marquis’ ERA is 3.95 with a 4.11 FIP. That said, his best value could be in the bullpen, as Dave Cameron notes, the Rockies bullpen doesn’t have a guy like that. He could start Game 3 or 4 of the NLDS, or come out of the bullpen.

Jason Hammel-Jason strikesout out a decent amount of hitters, 6.75K/9, but his value is his lies in his 2.16BB/9. He is 18th among starters in MLB in BB/9, and that’s better than Josh Beckett, Johan Santana and CC Sabathia’s BB/9. He has been a bit unlucky with BABIP (.337) this year. Hammel has a 3.74 FIP this season and he should start game 3 of the NLDS.

Jorge de la Rosa- a strikeout machine at 9.35 K/9, but walks more hitters than he should, 4.10 BB/9. His best pitches have been his Changeup and Slider. Ironically, his fastball has been his weakest pitch this season. De la Rosa has a 3.79 FIP and should start game 4 of the NLDS or come out of the bullpen.

Aaron Cook-not a big strikeout guy, so he relies on good luck for balls hit in play. Cook is the elder statesman in terms of this rotation. He is 30 years old and has built his career on inducing groundballs. He has been strong in his two starts back from the DL, and pitching in game 2 of the NLDS  could happen, but with his less-than-thrilling season, I don’t think he is entitled to start Game 2 of the NLDS.

I don’t think you can really go wrong 2-4, so I’ll trust Jim Tracy’s judgment on this one.

Relievers-Rockies relievers are 7th in MLB in terms of FIP, and 2nd only to the Dodgers among playoff teams. Their K/BB ratio is 3rd among all teams in baseball, but strand only 69% of runners.

Huston Street has been a stellar closer this year, converting 35 of 37 save opportunities and boasting a 2.94FIP. Rafael Betancourt and Franklin Morales are great bridges to Street late in games. They aren’t as deep as LA, but they are in good shape with a lead from the 7th inning and later.

Lineup…Recent lineups look like this…

Fowler

Smith

Helton

Tulowitzki

Hawpe

Atkins

Iannetta

Barmes

Pitcher

As stated above, Troy Tulowitzki has been a stud this year, but Todd Helton has played really well this year. Helton has a 3.5 WAR, 2nd to Tulo, and is .324/.415/.489 and a .392 wOBA. Hawpe has been a great bat this year with a wOBA of .383 with 22 HR and 79 BB. Seth Smith and Carlos Gonzalez have been their next best hitters. Giving at bats to Clint Barmes and Garrett Atkins have been a waste. The Rockies should consider playing Ian Stewart at 3rd over Atkins in the playoffs.

Defense-they are a bad defensive team, no doubt about it. They have a -12.5 UZR, and it could be worse, depending on which players they start. Brad Hawpe and Dexter Fowler have UZR’s worse than -10. Garrett Atkins isn’t very good at 3B and Todd Helton hasn’t had a great season at first base. Conversely, Seth Smith, Clint Barmes and Ian Stewart have had strong seasons, and should be in their postseason lineup.

Bench- Garrett Atkins, Jason Giambi, Ryan Spilborghs, Carlos Gonzalez and Yorvit Torrealba are the key players on their bench. Gonzalez and Spilborghs are good defensive players, and could start or serve as defensive replacements. Giambi is having a terrible season, but his walk rate is at 16% and could be a decent pinch hit threat. Garrett Atkins really shouldn’t see the field or plate, based on his horrendous 2009 season.

Coaching- Manager Jim Tracy has one postseason appearance (2004) in his career as a manager and he was with the Dodgers. He doesn’t have the experience of Torre, La Russa, Francona or Scoscia, but his team is playing well with him.

Reason why they will win the WS- their starting pitching is strong and for a playoff series, they have a various pitching styles, ranging from groundball throwers, strikeout guys and those that have command of the strike zone. The back end of their bullpen is strong enough to close out games. Their offense can score, they have 801 runs this year, which is only behind Philadelphia for most runs scored in the NL.

Reason why they won’t win the WS-their defense is quite suspect, and depending on which players Tracy starts, the Rockies could be in for a long day on defense. They have the weakest run differential of any playoff team that doesn’t come out of the AL Central. Their road record is the weakest of all NL playoff teams, and being the NL Wild Card will force them to play more games than anyone else in the playoffs.

In summary…the Rockies have a good offense, good rotation and good back end of the bullpen. They don’t prevent as many runs as they could. They won’t overpower you, but they stay in games. They are the weakest of the NL playoff teams, but they could make a run at the World Series based on the randomness of the MLB Playoffs.