Can Tony LaRussa bring St. Louis another World Series?

The Cardinals came into 2009 as a team full of questions.  They had Albert Pujols, but that was about it.  Troy Glaus began the season on the disabled list, Khalil Greene went on the DL early, they were using a converted outfielder at second base, and were playing a rookie in center field.  But as always, LaRussa and company found a way to get the job done.

After acquiring Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa, the Cards pulled away from the Cubs and Brewers in July.  This can be attributed to their two aces, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, as well as big performances from Joel Pineiro and Ryan Franklin.  They’ve been one of the hottest teams in the NL in the last two months, and they are on their way to the World Series.

Starters – The Cards have been carried by their two Cy Young candidates in Carpenter and Wainwright.  They are also placing John Smoltz and Kyle Lohse in the pen for the NLDS, which means they plan on using Carpenter and Wainwright twice if the opening series goes five games.

Wainwright – Wainwright’s ability to get groundballs and strikeouts is the reason he’s 19-8.  His FIP is at 3.11, and has been worth 5.8 WAR.  He’s everything you want in a #1 pitcher – innings and value. He looks strong and ready for the postseason.

Carpenter – He holds a 2.77 FIP this year, aided by a .272 BABIP and a 79.5 LOB%.  He’s only had three starts in which he gave up more than four earned runs.  He’s been the Cardinals second most valuable pitcher, at 5.6 WAR.

Pineiro – Dave Duncan will surely put Pineiro’s season on his resume after this year.  Pineiro is much better than his record of 15-12.  He’s getting three times as many groundballs as flyballs this season, and is in position for a big payday in the offseason.  He can increase his value even more with a big postseason.

Bullpen – The Achillies heal of the Cardinals is the back end of their bullpen.  Ryan Franklin has been extremely lucky with his home run rate.  There are some concerns over his peripherals in the playoffs.  If he falters as the closer, look for Smoltz to step into the role.  After Franklin, Trevor Miller, Blake Hawksworth, and Dennys Reyes are the others in the pen.  Those guys aren’t going to scare the offenses of Colorado, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia.

Lineup:

Schumaker, 2B – Inexperience at 2B has not affected his bat.  Lugo will play vs. lefties.

Rasmus, CF – Will see a lot of fastballs in front of Pujols.  Will need to hit in front of them

Pujols, 1B – The best player on the planet sports a .451 wOBA.

Holliday, LF – Has been on fire, hitting .353 since coming over from Oakland

Ludwick, RF – Difference between 2008 and 2009?  BABIP has dropped nearly 50 points.  Heating up lately.

DeRosa, 3B – Low wOBA, but he will be praised for the clubhouse and his RBI.  League average at 3B.

Molina, C – Best defensive catcher since Pudge Rodriguez.  Set career highs in many offensive categories this season.

Pitcher – Makes no sense, but LaRussa likes it.

Ryan, SS – The second most valuable player on the Cardinals.  Slick glove, and has decent speed.

Defense: Other than Ryan and Molina, the team doesn’t have many strong defenders.  The rest of the team is average, with Schumaker getting better at 2B.  Team UZR is middle of the pack, but behind the Phillies for best defense of NL playoff teams.

Bench: Glaus could be a big right handed bat off the bench, but that’s all the pop they have.  Lugo is there, as is Tyler Greene.  Rick Ankiel has been a disappointment thus far, but maybe he can find some power in the playoffs.

Coaching: Tony LaRussa is one of the best in game managers in the game.  Dave Duncan is the best pitching coach in the world, and you can see why with the results this team has had.

Will Albert be showered with more champagne this postseason?

Reason why they will win: Albert Pujols/Matt Holliday is the best 3-4 combo in the playoffs.  And their starting pitching is among the best in baseball.

Reason why they will not win: The back end of the Cards pen will blow some leads late.  Pineiro will have some big trouble vs. the lefties of Philadelphia, if it gets that far.

Conclusion: The right handed power bats of the Cardinals will be a nightmare for all of the lefties they will face in the postseason.  They are the favorite to go to the World Series this year, and the only team with a better chance to win are the Yankees.