You Wont Be Seeing Many Of These Anymore

After listening to the off-season predictions, the Denver Broncos had a chance to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. Franchise quarterback, Jay Cutler, had a run-in with Josh McDaniels and forced a trade to the Chicago Bears. Following suit, Brandon Marshall sulked through training camp and was a long shot to make an impact this season. Stefan Fatsis, who chronicled his time as a Broncos kicker in A Few Seconds Of Panic, was, and still is, pretty critical of McDaniels. It didn’t get any easier for McDaniels, who was questioned for acquiring Kyle Orton, and trading Jay Cutler. Many Broncos fan sites were calling for McDaniels head before the season even began. Six weeks into the NFL season, and McDaniels looks like a genius, causing some sites to change their opinions. Believe it or not, the Broncos are 6-0! How do they keep exceeding expectations?

Orton Has Been Spectacular In 2009

Much of the Broncos success, obviously, can be attributed to Josh McDaniels. After reviewing every game tape of Kyle Orton, McDaniels saw a quarterback that could run his offense effectively. While Orton’s career started out rough, he was on his way to having a successful season in 2008 until he sprained his ankle against the Detroit Lions. Likely fearing for his job security, Orton returned after missing one game and wasn’t the same quarterback. Orton, however, showed that he was capable of making multiple reads and limiting turnovers with few offensive weapons. Six weeks into the season, and Orton has thrown 9TDs to 1 INT in McDaniels system. McDaniels deserves credit for taking a chance on Orton. Thus far, his performance is one of the main reasons that the Broncos are undefeated.

The emotional catharsis of Brandon Marshall has also been a key to this Broncos team. After the now infamous footage of Marshall sulking during practice surfaced, it seemed unlikely that Marshall would suit up for the Broncos in 2009. Marshall even admitted to not knowing the new playbook. After serving his suspension, Marshall came back to the team a changed man. Marshall hasn’t missed a beat despite a new offense, new coach, and new quarterback. After scoring the game winning touchdown against the Cowboys, Marshall ran over to the sidelines and hugged McDaniels. Marshall’s willingness to embrace both McDaniels and the new system is a major reason why the Broncos are firing on all cylinders right now.

Mike Nolan's Defense Has Had Success

Perhaps the biggest reason for the Broncos turn around has been on defense. Last season, the Broncos had one of the worst defenses in the past 10 years. According to Pro Football Almanac, only the 2008 Detroit Lions had a worse defense than the 2008 Denver Broncos in the past 10 years. The Broncos best cornerback, Champ Bailey, struggled through an injury plagued season and didn’t look like the same player. The secondary, in general, was old and ineffective. Only Elvis Dumervil performed on the defensive line, with 5 sacks. Enter Mike Nolan. After a rough outing as the San Francisco 49ers head coach, Nolan joined the Broncos as the new defensive coordinator. In his last two stops as the defensive coordinator, the Jets and the Ravens, he led some of the best defenses in the NFL. In 2000, the New York Jets ranked 6th in Defensive Value Over Adjusted (DVOA). All of Nolan’s Ravens defenses ranked in the top 4. The secondary is still aging, but both Bailey and Brian Dawkins are playing at a high level with 6 and 8 passes defensed respectively. Dumervil, who was converted to outside linebacker this off-season, already has 10 sacks.

Was it plausible to predict this type of turnaround? Even the smart guys over at Football Outsiders are puzzled. There were some people who thought Orton could succeed in McDaniels’ offensive scheme, but few expected him to be playing at this level. Obviously, nobody saw the defensive revival coming…except maybe this guy. That article, however, seems to be focused more on perceptions than anything. No where in the article does the writer give indisputable evidence that this team would really be 11-5. Anyone could have believed in the same principles about their own team, and expected success. The argument that the defense will be better because there are 8 new starters isn’t terrible, but the defense could not have gotten much worse this season. The point is, sports analysis is an imperfect process. Even though we may have all the information, we still cannot see certain things coming. Maybe there is more at work with this Broncos team. If you read Bill Simmons, you might buy into “The Ewing Theory,” or the “Nobody Believes In Us Theory.” The Broncos would qualify for both right now. Regardless, based on their play in 2009, the Broncos certainly deserve to be 6-0. The real question is how the hell they achieved this level of play in such a short time period.