Greinke Was The Right Choice

In what could be considered a shocker, the best pitcher in the AL actually won the AL Cy Young. It was announced earlier today that Kansas City Royals ace, Zack Greinke, despite only winning 16 games, was named the AL Cy Young. In the past, the pitcher with the highest number of wins in the league would win the Cy Young Award. Despite a tremendous season, Greinke ranked 7th among AL pitchers with 16 wins. Now that the voters actually got it right, what exactly does this mean for the future of the MLB Post-season awards?

The BBWAA has, and is, often criticized for their award selections each season. Even yesterday, there were many that questioned the choices of Chris Coughlin and Andrew Bailey as the Rookies of the Year. Often times, the criticism comes from the BBWAA relying on statistics like RBIs and Wins rather than stats a player can directly influence. Not to mention, a player’s defensive prowess does not seem to be considered all that often. In the case of RBIs and Wins, individual players have only some control over those statistics. Look no further than Bartolo Colon who won 21 games in 2005, but had a 3.48 ERA. Meanwhile, Johan Santana struck out almost 80 more men, gave up less hits, and had an ERA of 2.88. The problem, Santana only won 16 games in 2005, which led to Colon winning the award. In 2006, Ryan Howard beat out Albert Pujols for the MVP despite Pujols besting Howard in OBP and SLG. Howard, of course, had a higher RBI total in 2006.

David Cone Won 16 Games...In A Strike Shortened Season

However, after today maybe things are changing. The last AL pitcher to win the Cy Young, and have 16 wins or less, was David Cone in 1994. If you can remember correctly though, 1994 was a strike shortened season. As a matter of fact, the last AL starting pitcher to win the Cy Young with 16 wins or less was…actually, I can’t find one. Greinke would be the first according to Baseball Reference if you don’t count the 1994 strike shortened season. Perhaps the traditional statistics matter a bit less now. Perhaps we are dealing with a more informed BBWAA. While certain awards will still lead to head scratching (like picking a RP over Elvis Andrus or Rick Porcello), the BBWAA may have learned from the past.

We probably should have seen this coming though. Recent inductees to the BBWAA have actually embraced advanced statistics over the traditional stats. People like Will Carroll, Rob Neyer, and Keith Law come to mind here. As the younger, more stat oriented writers are inducted into the BBWAA, more informed decisions will be made concerning awards. While it is encouraging to see Greinke win, despite the low win total and the fact that he played on a last place team, there could be some controversial decisions right around the corner. Tomorrow, the NL Cy Young Award will be announced. While Adam Wainwright is not a bad choice, Tim Lincecum had a tremendous season once again but only won 15 games. Advanced stats show that Lincecum’s FIP was actually much lower than Wainwright’s. Wainwright, however, won 5 more games than Lincecum. According to ESPN’s Cy Young Predictor, Lincecum is predicted to finish 4th overall in the voting tomorrow. Than again, they had Felix Hernandez winning the AL Cy Young. If advanced stats are really starting to make an impact in the voting process, Lincecum has a chance to win the NL Cy Young Award tomorrow. If not, expect Wainwright to take the spot. Even if Lincecum can’t pull it off, I expect the vote to be closer than many people realize. Then again, as Rob Neyer mentioned, Zack Greinke ran away with the vote today…why shouldn’t Lincecum be able to do the same?

Shouldn't Mauer Be In The Conversation?

While Wainwright over Lincecum might not be a totally egregious error, I take issue with MLB.com not even acknowledging Joe Mauer as a viable MVP candidate. As they say, “the times they are a changin.” While today was a big win for stat oriented baseball fans, the next few award races could see the BBWAA reverting back to their traditional stats. If today was any indication, however, the BBWAA is getting smarter. While there will never be a day where fans stop complaining about awards, there might be a few more articles like this, praising the BBWAA for getting things right.