If Pujols Quit Now, He Might Get In...He's That Good

I consider Joe Posnanski to be a pretty smart guy. Having said that, anytime you rank the top 10 players under 30 who will make it to the Hall Of Fame, you take some big risks. Posnanski recognizes the risks right away, when he admits that if he made this list in 1985, only 4 of his 10 would currently be in the HOF. Obviously, many factors come into play when you make this type of list. Injuries, ineffectiveness, inability to live up to the hype, and other external factors can derail the careers of some of the best players in the league. Even within the article, Posnanski compares Hanley Ramirez to Nomar Garciaparra and Derek Jeter, two players who probably would have made this same list 10 years ago. You already know the rest of the story, Jeter is still a lock, while Nomar continues to sign one year deals as a super-sub. These were two of the most dynamic players in all of baseball a few years ago…and only one of them is still considered a lock for the Hall. The point is, it’s really hard to be a top player in the MLB for an extended period of time. While Posnanski makes some very good selections, its just as likely that only 4 out of 10 actually make it to the Hall. I can’t stress this enough, Posnanski picks some of the best players in the game right now…and many of them will not go on to the HOF. That’s crazy! Posnanski makes this point when he lists would-be choices from 1985, so while guys on his 2009 list all look like good selections, it’s likely that only half of the players on that list make it to the Hall. Don’t believe me? Let’s take a closer look.

Before we go any further, Posnanski has some criteria he uses to make his list. Obviously, the players have to be under 30 years old. However, they also have to either “(A) played 500 games; (B) won 50 games or (C) saved 100 games.” You might think this helps Posnanski’s case. Players that have shown enough promise to have already achieved those milestones, should be pretty solid HOF choices right? I’m not so sure.

Take Dwight Gooden for example. By the age of 25, Gooden had already won a Cy Young award, and appeared on the Cy Young ballot 5 out of 7 seasons. Gooden seemed like a lock to cruise into the HOF in 1990. Unfortunately, a drug addiction ruined his career. For those of you arguing that Gooden was a unique case, fine…we can continue.

Jones Was A Rising Star, But Fell Off A Cliff A Few Seasons Ago

At age 29, Andruw Jones looked like a lock for the HOF as well. He had 9 straight seasons with at least 26 home runs, and played stellar defense at one of the hardest defensive positions. Consider this, by age 29, Jones had more home runs than Barry Bonds or Jim Rice at the same age. Just three years later, Jones is a shell of his former self.

We already covered Nomar, right? Good. Clearly, it’s not as easy as you think to name the future HOF candidates under 30. Even when you consider that, Posnanski’s list pretty damn good. If you didn’t click the link at the beginning of the article, go there NOW and check it out. It’s hard to argue with many of Posnanski’s picks. Obviously, it’s a much bigger risk to take pitchers in this debate, but it’s really tough to argue against CC Sabathia here. His pick at number 10? Well, that one can be argued. In my opinion, the choice of Grady Sizemore is also pretty risky considering that he is coming off an injury riddled season and surgery. In fairness, you can almost look at every player on Posnanski’s list and make an argument against that player getting into the Hall. Will Mauer’s knees hold up, can David Wright bounce back from a sub par season, will Miguel Cabrera eat himself out of the league, etc. Instead of ripping Posnanski’s choices, I want to look at some players he omitted that could have (should have?) made this list.

Longoria Should Make This List In A Few Seasons

Unfortunately, this article is longer than I expected. We will cover some omitted players in the coming days. Keep in mind that players like Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, and Evan Longoria would not qualify for this list based on Posnanski’s criteria. What did you think of Posnanski’s list? Let us know in the comments.

Coming soon: An analysis of players omitted from Posnanski’s list that should have been included.