After Such A Strange Career, Does Warner Deserve To Be In The Hall?

There’s no doubt that Kurt Warner has had one of the most unique career paths of any player in the NFL. After going un-drafted, Warner played in the Arena League and NFL Europe before finally getting his chance to succeed in the NFL. While Warner had a tremendous start to his career, he quickly crashed down to earth just a few seasons later. In 2003, Warner was benched in favor of Marc Bulger. It appeared his time as an NFL starting quarterback was over. After years of rotating between a starter and a backup, Warner finally got another chance in 2007. With Matt Leinart struggling, Warner replaced the young quarterback and looked like the Warner of old. Since 2007, Warner has thrown 77 touchdowns*. With a strong finish to his career, is Kurt Warner a Hall Of Famer?

In the weeks leading up to last season’s Super Bowl, many analysts discussed Kurt Warner’s qualifications for the NFL Hall Of Fame. Supporters talked about Warner’s ability to take the hapless Cardinals to the Super Bowl, and mentioned that Warner had already won two MVP awards in his career. Detractors argued that Warner had too many injury riddled/poor seasons to be a Hall Of Famer. Both parties, however, agreed that another Super Bowl win could be enough to push Warner into the Hall. Despite a late rally by Warner and the Cardinals, the Steelers were victorious. Once again, Warner had suffered a devastating low point in his career.

Heading into 2009, many analysts (including myself) were skeptical as to whether Warner could continue his late career surge. Ten games in, and Warner has 20 touchdowns and the third highest completion percentage of his career. A week ago, I stumbled upon an article at FootballOutsiders.com. That article said the following about Warner’s performance after a Week 10 win over the Seahawks:

Even by Kurt Warner standards, he had a hot streak in this game. After throwing two incompletions to start off the second quarter, he went on a rampage: 23-of-25 (with a 19-yard defensive pass interference penalty) for 330 yards, 13 first downs, and two touchdowns. That’s unholy, the sort of stuff you do playing video games in beginner mode. Considering the diabolically easy schedule Warner’s about to run through over the next six weeks, you might be looking at your NFL MVP.

I thought to myself, this was the same Football Outsiders that predicted Warner would have a poor season, right? Of course, looking at their research, it was hard to argue against the stats. Very few quarterbacks remained effective at Warner’s age. Once again, Warner has exceeded expectations. Then I looked at Warner’s schedule…it looks pretty favorable.

These Two Are Part Of A Very Exclusive Club That Warner Could Join After The Season

Taking a look at the different defensive stats, Warner may just have a chance to capture his 3rd MVP Award. Only 2 other quarterbacks have won 3 MVPs, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning…think they are Hall Of Famers? While the Packers and 49ers actually have a high defensive DVOA, the 49ers allow a lot of passing yards and the Packers have given up a lot of passing touchdowns this season. The only team without any numbers in bold (which represent numbers that Warner should be salivating over) is the Minnesota Vikings, who rank in the middle of the pack using all 3 statistics. Warner already has 20 touchdowns on the season, just two off the lead, and has lead the Cardinals to a 7-3 start. Should Warner win a third MVP, which is entirely possible considering the schedule, he’s got to be a lock for the Hall Of Fame.

Let’s say Kurt doesn’t manage to win a third MVP Award, what are the pros and cons regarding his HOF candidacy.

Pros

• Of the six quarterbacks who have won multiple MVP Awards, 3 are already in the HOF, 2 (Peyton Manning and Brett Favre) are locks for the HOF, and Warner is the 6th.
• Warner has tremendous stats in the post-season. He is 8-3 overall, and has the 3 highest passing yardage games in the Super Bowl.
• He and only 10 other quarterbacks have started 3 Super Bowl games…8 are in the HOF…the 9th quarterback is Tom Brady.
• Warner has the 6th highest career passer rating, the second highest career completion percentage, the second highest career passing yards per game, and ranks 28th in career passing touchdowns.
• Of the 27 players that have thrown more touchdowns than Warner, 14 are in the HOF and 3 are locks for the HOF (Favre, Manning, and Brady)

Cons

• The stretch between 2002-2006 where Warner threw 27 TDs to 30 INTs over a 5 year span.
• A 1-2 mark in the Super Bowl (while Warner rallied his team both times, he was somewhat responsible for his teams trailing, throwing INTs for touchdowns in both Super Bowl loses).
• While he has never led the league in any particular negative statistic (sacks, INTs, fumbles) he is often criticized for his turnovers.
• Warner is already 38 years old, and still either needs another MVP Award or to defy father time and continue to play well for a least another season or two to be consider a lock for the HOF.

In the weeks leading up to last season’s Super Bowl, I was one of the naysayers when it came to Warner’s Hall Of Fame credentials. Less than a year later, I don’t think he looks like such a bad choice.

Considering the schedule, do you think Warner has a shot at his 3rd MVP? Is Kurt Warner a Hall Of Famer? Let us know what you think in the comments.

*Including 10 games in 2009.