Will Tebow's Abilities Translate to the NFL?

Even though the NFL is still in the regular season, and the college bowl games haven’t been played, some fans are already looking toward the NFL draft. Although the NFL Draft began in 1936, drafting a potential franchise player is still a risky proposition. Often times, NFL teams will marry themselves to one player and hope he can reverse their fortunes. Sometimes (Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer), this strategy w0rks to perfection. Other times (Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell), the franchise is set back another couple of years. Perhaps the most difficult position to evaluate is the quarterback position. Year after year, there are 1st round quarterbacks that fail to develop at an NFL level, despite their lofty draft position. One of the most controversial players coming out of college football this season is Florida quarterback, Tim Tebow. After entering into numerous arguments about how Tebow would not succeed in the NFL, I decided to take a closer look at Tebow’s resume. Does Tim Tebow have what it takes to be a franchise quarterback in the NFL

Some fans/former players/analysts/owners have already openly shown support for Tim Tebow’s success at the NFL level. Unfortunately, some of the NFL draft gurus disagree. With Tim Tebow, it’s hard to know what to believe. While the articles mentioned above seem to suggest Tebow should be drafted in the first round, some of the NFL Draft gurus are skeptical. One of the biggest issues with Tebow is Urban Meyer’s offense. While Meyer’s offense translates well to the college game, his quarterbacks have had a hard time adjusting to the NFL.

Obviously, this is a very small (and extreme) sample size, but there are a few things to take away from these numbers.

• The effect of Meyer’s offense on a quarterback were not realized immediately as evidenced by Alex Smith being draft 1st overall.
• Alex Smith’s failures at the NFL level led to team more accurately rating quarterbacks in Meyer’s system as evidenced by Chris Leak going undrafted, despite putting up some decent college numbers.
• In the same offensive system, Tim Tebow could not complete a higher percentage of passes, with a more talented group of players, than Alex Smith.

Smith is Comparble to Tebow

Comparing Tebow to Alex Smith isn’t as crazy as it sounds. While Tebow is widely considered one of the greatest college players of all time, they played in the same offense and were both mobile college quarterbacks. Yes, Tim Tebow is known for his running ability, but Smith’s 4.7 YPC average in 2004 is higher than all but Tebow’s rookie season (5.3 YPC). Tebow also attended a prestigious college program, and was surrounded with better talent than Alex Smith had at Utah.

So, how was Alex Smith the consensus 1st overall pick in 2005, yet no one can accurately predict where Tebow should be drafted? Obviously, this has a lot to do with NFL teams/scouts realizing the effect of Meyer’s offense on quarterbacks. I cannot stress this point enough. Back when Meyer was an unknown, scouts could not accurately evaluate Alex Smith’s NFL potential. Had the effects of Meyer’s offense been understood, Smith’s statistics would have to be taken with a grain of salt. This is exactly what is happening to Tim Tebow.

When trying to use David Lewin’s quarterback projections to evaluate Tebow, it’s tough to find fair comparisons. Based on starts and completion percentage, Tebow compares to Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Leinart, Byron Leftwich, Philip RIvers, and Daunte Culpepper. If you try to evaluate the effect of Tebow’s offensive system, the two best comparable players are Alex Smith and Tim Couch. Both players played in offensive systems that boosted their numbers before scouts realized those effects, and both players went 1st overall in the draft. As a matter of fact, if you combine Alex Smith’s and Tim Couch’s college stats, you get a quarterback with similar college numbers to Tebow.

Those numbers are eerily similar. Remember, Tebow split time with Leak in his first season. So, while Tebow has less starts, he saw action in more than 40 games. This makes Tebow’s 141 TDs in 40 starts a bit less impressive. As a freshman, Tebow accumulated 12 TDs, but did not start any games.

Fans Shouldn't Marry Themselves to Tebow Just Yet

What exactly does this mean? The numbers speak for themselves, Tebow really wasn’t much better than the Leak/Couch/Smith creations. While Tebow is undoubtedly the best playmaker of the bunch, that doesn’t always translate to success in the NFL (see Vick, Michael). Sure, Vick was a good runner, but left much to be desired as a passer. It is also telling that Tebow is one of the greatest college players of all time, but scouts have no idea where he should be drafted. Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, and Mike Mayock do not think Tebow has the talent to be drafted in the first round.

Then again, based on his leadership and game breaking ability, I wouldn’t be surprised if some team did take Tebow in the first round. He certainly seems like a strong leader and a decent guy, but he lacks the passing abilities to succeed in the NFL. So, is Tebow an NFL quarterback? I don’t see it. The best case for Tebow could be Pat White. White was another mobile quarterback that is projected to fit well in the Wildcat offensive system. Should Tebow land in a situation like White’s, that could be his best opportunity to succeed in the NFL. If a team drafts Tebow to be their franchise quarterback, they might be in for a rude awakening.

Think Tebow will be a legitimate NFL starter? Let us know about it in the comments.