No One Is Getting Barry Zito Money This Year

The MLB off-season is arguably the most exciting off-season of all the major sports. There, I said it! Aside from free agency, the MLB is probably the most active league when it comes to trades. Although this off-season was supposed to feature one of the weaker free agent classes in recent memory, I’m finding it far more entertaining than I had expected. What other sports league holds an event like the Winter Meetings, where they get all the GMs together in an attempt to encourage trades/conversations. Think about any fantasy league you have been a part of, most of the deals happen when a few of the owners get together and discuss their league/team/players. This is exactly what happens every MLB off-season. While the free agency class isn’t that strong, there are a number of important story lines that, although they haven’t been discussed in detail, have been carrying the MLB off-season thus far.

1. The economy is severely affecting free agent compensation/forcing teams to shed payroll. (As I was writing this, Rob Neyer posted a column concerning this point. Damn you Neyer!)

Whether you like it or not, the poor state of the economy is one of the reasons why there are so many uncertainties surrounding the off-season. While only a few free agents have signed, none of the deals have included a ridiculous amount of money. One player who would have been drastically overpaid in years past, Chone Figgins, was actually signed at a bargain price. Looking back at some articles posted during the season, it looked like Figgins would go for around $50 million over 5 years. Check out that Neyer article again, he makes two great points about Wolf/Suppan and Hawkins/Farnsworth. The economy is forcing GMs to spend wisely, rely on scouting, and accurately evaluate talent. That has to be a good thing, right? Then again, rumor has it that the Royals just offered Jason Kendall a two year deal…

2. What is the new Moneyball strategy?

Players With Versatility Have A Lot Of Value This Off-Season

If anything, this off-season proves that teams are getting a lot smarter concerning player signings/development. Players that post high OBPs, and take walks are no longer an undervalued commodity within the free agent market. We may have seen a shift last season, when the Mariners used defense to spur their resurgence. With teams unable to spend insane amounts of money this off-season, players who specialize in one specific category (speed, defense, multi-position eligibility) should be more accurately valued, and could make a big impact in 2010.

3. Sell, Sell, Sell!

With the economy in the dumps, trades appear to be the best way for a team to acquire undervalued talent. Both the A’s (Jake Fox) and Red Sox (Jeremy Hermida) have already acquired players who they felt were undervalued by their former teams. Aside from acquiring undervalued talent, there are a number of teams willing to deal bad contracts. Milton Bradley, Vernon Wells, Mike Lowell, Derek Lowe, Kevin Millwood, almost everyone on the Tigers, Jeff Suppan, Juan Pierre, Pat Burrell, and Carlos Silva are all on the block. That’s 9 guys right there (counting the Tigers, it jumps to 12-13 probably)! While there are some guys on that list I wouldn’t touch (Silva, Suppan) there are a few guys that could produce in the right situation (Bradley, Millwood, who I like on the O’s). Not only are these players on the block, but their current teams are willing to pay a large load of their salaries just to get rid of them.

4. Teams looking to make “The Leap” have been pretty active.

The Rays Have Been Active

Every off-season, there are 2-3 teams that, depending on the moves they make, could be the big surprise team the following season. The Mariners, Rays, and Rangers are three teams I would consider right now. The M’s already made a big splash by acquiring Chone Figgins, but they have been linked to many names (Jason Bay) already. Ok, I don’t think the Rays really count in this category. Yes, they missed out on the playoffs, but they won 84 games in a tough division. They arguably have the most talent in that division as well. The Rays are on the verge of becoming the next Red Sox in terms of winning, management, and player development. Once they make “The Leap,” they could be on top for a long time. They seem to realize this too, because this the most active off-season I can ever remember by the Rays. The Rays have already been linked to Milton Bradley, Rafael Soriano, Nelson Cruz, and Carlos Quentin. Seems like the Rays are serious about making “The Leap” sooner rather than later. Finally, the Rangers have also been making some noise. With their prospects just about ready to start contributing in a big way, the Rangers are trying to shore up the rest of their team. After shedding some salary by trading Kevin Millwood, the Rangers are on the verge of signing Rich Harden to an incentive-heavy deal. Harden is one of the many low risk, high reward pitchers on the market this off-season (Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, and Justin Duchscherer being a few of the others). With the Rangers freeing up some salary, they may be on the verge of going after some of the higher impact free agents. With the right mix of prospects and veterans, the Rangers could compete in a relatively weak AL West next season.

There are already 3-4 story lines I did not address. Let me know what you are excited about this off-season in the comments.