Big Surprise Here, Mauer is Number 1

Before we get into the column, I want to mention that Monty has also decided to take on this endeavor. We haven’t made any wagers, but bragging rights will work as far as I am concerned. Without further ado…

The last few seasons, the catcher position has been quite top heavy. The upcoming season should bring more of the same. While there appear to be 3-4 sure things at catcher, the rest of the top 10 is marred with breakout players and bounce back candidates.

Monty’s Thoughts on Individual Players

• Russell Martin-After breaking out in 2007, he followed up with a strong 2008 but a weak 2009. Last year he was worn down after 2 consecutive years of 500+AB and a year of 415 AB. Despite putting up a .249/.351/.328 last year, his three year average is at .273/.370/.397. He hits around 13 HR with 17 SB a year. So not big power like McCann, but has some speed. Fans can be optimistic for a bounce back season for Martin is turning 27, the ripe age for baseball players. If he models his career numbers, very similar to his last three years, he should be a top-5 catcher in fantasy baseball. Also, he hits in a very potent lineup, so his runs and RBI should be very solid.

• Kurt Suzuki- A few things jump out at me with the 26, in baseball season to be 27 Suzuki. First, he has had 570 AB and 530 AB over the past few seasons with a .271 BA. Last year, he had a nice jump in power, 15 HR, 88 RBI and led all catchers with 37 Doubles. Doubles have been strongly correlated between runs scored and RBI and a good predictor for future value. I like Kurt mainly because he plays, he is young, hits for a decent avg for a catcher and his some power. I have him rated higher than most people because of my value of AB at the catcher position. On draft day he should be a good bargain for you.

• Jorge Posada- Jorge has top-5 fantasy catcher numbers…when he plays. His last three years he has averaged… .307/.393/.517 with 15 HR. Those are some great numbers, but is it worth taking him as a top-5 catcher missing as many at bats as he will? Posada is 38, going to turn 39 during the middle of this baseball season, and I wouldn’t feel confident betting he will be fully health this season. He had 338 AB last year and 168 AB the year before. CBS Sportline projects him to have 364 AB this season, which is more than both of the past two seasons. Even with 364 AB, that’s nearly 200 less AB than Mauer and V-Mart. I wouldn’t take Posada that high knowing I would have to carry a second catcher on my roster to make up for all his missed AB.

• Geovany Soto- He may be the most difficult catcher to project for this season. His rookie season was outstanding with 23 HR, slugging .504 and driving in 86, but last year he had a huge dropoff in power, batting average and At Bats. His minor league numbers don’t support 20+HR, and he could be a big risk if you project him with big numbers. His number of AB in the minor and major leagues dont suggest much higher than 400 AB. I would play it safe with Soto and lean more towards an average of the last two years.

Chris’ Thoughts on Individual Players

• Jorge Posada- Regardless of his health, Posada is a top 5 (in my opinion, top 3) fantasy catcher. Posada’s age is a legitimate concern heading into the upcoming season, but his track record is spotless. A shoulder injury limited Posada in 2008, but he responded in a big way in 2009. Concerns about his ABs are overblown, Posada is the definition of consistency and durability who averages 545 ABs a season over his career. His shoulder injury was a tiny scratch on an excellent career. It’s encouraging that Posada’s only DL stint in 2009 was unrelated to his shoulder, and that his CS% was around his career average in 2009. This tells me that the shoulder was (and is) 100% healthy. Posada also walks quite a bit for a catcher, so although he only had 383 ABs last season, he had 438 plate appearances (not a poor number for a catcher).

• Miguel Montero- A Keith Law favorite here. Montero lived up to the praise of stat analysts last season. Only 25 years old, Montero hit .294 while keeping his BABIP around the same level as it was in 2008 (when he hit .255). Sure enough, Montero put more balls in play last season, which led to his improved average. Montero also plays in a hitter’s park, where he should continue to mash at the plate. When you consider his age and his second half (.316 AVG/11 HRs/.534 SLG), you realize that this is just a taste of what Montero is capable of.

• Chris Iannetta- Iannetta is another young player who was on the verge of a huge breakout as recently as 2008. Last season, Iannetta only hit .228, albeit with 16 HRs. The low average can be explained by a poor BABIP (.245), meaning that Iannetta was pretty unlucky last season. Outside of the low average, most of his advanced statistics are trending upward. In 2009, Iannetta increased his AB/HR% while lowering his strikeout percentage. If his BABIP rebounds to fit his career numbers, he could be the breakout catcher of 2010.

• Ryan Doumit- Doumit is another player who suffered from a poor BABIP in 2009. Although injuries limited his ABs, Doumit did manage a .257/.313/.410 with 8 of his 10 homeruns in the second half. Doumit, however, does come with a lot of risks. He has never had +500 ABs in a single season due to his durability issues, and he doesn’t walk much. If 2008 (and 2007 to an extent) showed us anything, Doumit is capable if some nice power numbers from the catcher position. If 10 catchers are already off the board, Doumit is certainly worth the risks.

Who is overrated/underrated? Who has the more accurate list?