The No-Brainer Number 1 Pick at 1st

1st base has typically been a fantasy position that offers a lot of depth. If you aren’t fortunate enough to take Albert Pujols early, you can always grab a dependable sleeper much later. This year, there is more of the same. While 1st base is a deep position, the talent available is very young, which could lead to some huge breakouts this season. For example, only 5 players on each list are players currently over 30 years of age. That’s a lot of young and (sometimes) cheap talent. Take advantage of that this season.

Rankings after the jump.

Monty’s Thoughts on Individual Players

• Note that #2-4, I perceive Fielder, Cabrera and Teixeira to be interchangeable. I don’t think there is that much of a difference between these three. Fielder will give you most HR, Teixeira should give most runs scored and doubles, and Cabrera will give you the best average.  =

• Mark Reynolds-His 44 HR last year shouldn’t be an anomaly. He hit for a ton of power in the minor leagues and his home runs averaged the longest distance of ALL MAJOR LEAGUERS LAST SEASON, I bet you wouldn’t have guessed that. He is confidently projected to hit 35+HR and some have him hitting 40+HR. Not only that, but he steals bases, he stole 24 bases last year, and is projected to have double digit steals again. He isn’t ranked higher because his batting average is in the .260s. He is an Adam Dunn type with more speed. He’s only 26 and in his prime. He has 3B eligibility too and is more valuable there, but if you like Wright, Longoria or A-Rod and want to put one of those guys at 3rd and Reynolds at 1B, you have a solid first two picks.

• Joey Votto-I’m a big fan of Votto because of his ability to hit for average, .310 for his career, power around 25 HR per year and his OBP near .400. He played in 131 games last year, decent, but not great, and 151 the year before. He should play around 140 games, if not more for this 26-year old Canadian. The main concern with Votto is that the Reds suck, so it’s hard to justify projecting big RBI or run totals.

• Kendry Morales- I’m very bearish on Morales this year. Last season was his first season where he had over 200 AB. His minor league numbers don’t support him hitting another 30+ Homeruns this season and his walk rate isn’t very good. He can hit for a great average though, .305 last year and .322 in four years in the minor leagues. Also, I’m concerned about the lineup around him being weaker than last year. I’m not saying he will be bad, but 1B is the deepest position in fantasy baseball and him being at 15 on my list means he is around the replacement level 1B in a fantasy league

Chris’ Thoughts on Individual Players

• Derrek Lee- Lee was one of the most difficult players for me to place in the rankings. He had a huge year in 2009, but he’s also 34 years old (the oldest first basemen on my list). Lee, however, is the type of player that ages well. After two seasons where he played through nagging injuries, Lee rested when he was hurt and had his best season since 2005. If (and it’s a big if) he stays relatively healthy, the ability to put up numbers similar to 2009 is not out of the question. Due to the young talent available at 1st base, I wouldn’t blame anyone for passing on Lee to take a chance on a breakout player, but Lee should have another solid year in 2010.

• Kendry Morales- I really didn’t give Morales a fair chance when initially making the rankings. I had the same concerns that Monty outlined above. However, consider the following: Morales showed power potential all throughout the minors, he hit 43 doubles last season, he is only 26 years old, and he had a monster second half (.330/.375/.614 with 19 HRs). Morales looks like a player who finally grew into his body and started hitting the home runs everybody predicted…similar to Joe Mauer last season. Everyone knew these guys could develop power, it was just a question of when it would happen. Morales should come with a fair share of doubters this season, so take advantage when he falls to your spot in the draft.a

• Mark Reynolds- Maybe you can tell from my ranking, but I have no clue what to do with Reynolds this season. Monty’s comment about Reynolds being an Adam Dunn type is where I struggle ranking Reynolds. If they are the same player, shouldn’t they be ranked in similar spots? The answer would normally be yes. However, Reynolds’ ability to steal bases has to affect his ranking in some way, right? I’m honestly not sure how much, though. If you trust Monty and I, put Reynolds somewhere near your top 10 and hope for the best. He might be a player that rises in my rankings as we get closer to the season.

Coming up next: 2nd Basemen

Who do you think is over/underrated? Let us know about it in the comments.