What's wrong with Peavy?

Anyone who believed the White Sox would compete in 2010 cited the addition of a healthy Jake Peavy as a major reason for optimism. Just 5 starts into the season, White Sox fans are already pulling their hair out every time Peavy takes the mound. Coming into fantasy drafts, Peavy was one of the most interesting players to project. While doubters cited his injury history and new ballpark as reasons to avoid Peavy, others were optimistic about his performance down the stretch in 2009. Thus far, it appears the doubters may have been right. Although it’s only been 5 starts, is it time to cut bait on Peavy?

The Bad

Where to start? Peavy, who has always had a solid SO/BB ratio, is struggling with his command. In 28.2 innings pitched, Peavy has a strikeout to walk rate of 22/20. Due to his poor command, Peavy’s BB/9 is now a bloated 6.28. His strikeout rate, while not terrible, is far below his career average as well. Peavy also seems to have lost some velocity on his fastball this season. While his velocity has slowly declined over the years, his average fastball now sits at 90.9. In 2007, his average fastball velocity was 93.9. Perhaps as a direct result of his lost velocity, batters have hit Peavy much harder than usual, leading to a 26.1% line drive rate. With the move to US Cellular Field, many analysts wondered how Peavy’s fly ball tendencies would affect his numbers. Thus far, Peavy’s fly ball percentage has been extremely high, leading to an increase in home runs.

The Good

Once you sift through the 7.85 ERA and the 1.81 WHIP, there are some reasons to be optimistic. While Peavy has not pitched well in 2010, both his BABIP and his LOB% are due to regress. With that regression, however, Peavy’s xFIP is still 5.79. According to Peavy, he has struggled with his mechanics this season, leading to his struggles. If that is the case, expect pitching coach Don Cooper to figure out the problem quickly.

The verdict

Don Cooper is one of the best pitching coaches in baseball, and if Peavy’s issues are mechanical, Cooper should be able to get Peavy back on track. While it is plausible to assume Peavy’s control issues and lowered velocity are a result of bad mechanics, it’s also just as likely that Peavy is injured. It’s very worrisome to see Peavy, a pitcher who has never struggled with command, giving up a ton of walks this early. Given his injury history, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Peavy was already dealing with an ailment. Peavy should probably be benched in most fantasy leagues until he proves he can regain his old form. Monitor his starts cautiously going forward. If he doesn’t make progress in the next 2 starts, a DL stint could be in this future.