Don't miss out on the power potential

Kyle Blanks is one of the many promising players that has an opportunity to impress in 2010. After being named the 47th overall prospect by MLB.com, Blanks reached the major leagues last season and smashed 10 HRs in only 148 ABs. His intriguing size and power potential make him a strong sleeper towards the end of fantasy drafts. Blanks currently holds an ADP of 272 (per Mock Draft Central), and is currently being selected after Maicer Izturis, John Baker, and Matt Lindstrom (to name a few). With such a low average draft position, Blanks might be one of the key selection towards the end of your draft. So, what type of production can we expect from Blanks in 2010?

Players with an opportunity for more playing time

Players who rewarded owners last season: Ben Zobrist, Kendry Morales, Nelson Cruz

Player to watch this season: Kyle Blanks

At 6′6″ 285 pounds, Blanks is a big boy. With players as big as Blanks, conditioning is always going to be an issue.  While concerns over his weight have followed Blanks throughout his minor league career, those concerns have never amounted to any issues yet. Despite his size, Blanks is surprisingly athletic. In 2007, he stole 11 bases while posting an above average success rate. Blanks’ minor league numbers provide hope for a potential 2010 breakout.

Up until his brief AAA appearance, Blanks actually lowered his K% each season in the minors. Unfortunately, that number ballooned to 37.2% in the majors. Expect that number to drop quite a bit as Blanks gets used to major league pitching, but his high K% could be a problem going forward. Blanks’ FB% was also exceptionally high at 50.5%. While fly balls can lead to home runs, they also lead to fly outs, meaning Blanks might struggle to hit .270. His OBP and SLG numbers are very solid for a player at his age. Entering 2010, Blanks will be 23, meaning that he is likely to hit for more power as he inches closer to his prime.

In limited playing time, Blanks slugged .514 with the Padres. While he likely won’t hit a home run in every 14.8 ABs this season, Blanks has the potential to slug between .450-.50o. Due to Blanks’ power potential, he will likely hit directly behind (or near) Adrian Gonzalez in the batting order. Because so few teams actually pitch to Gonzalez, Blanks could see some extra RBI opportunities. Much like Gonzalez, however, you have to assume Petco Park will depress Blanks’ power numbers somewhat. For what it’s worth, Blanks did his more home runs at home as opposed to on the road (6-4) last season. Away from Petco, Blanks put up some great numbers .288/.355./.548. While the park should depress Blanks’ overall numbers somewhat, it hasn’t stopped Adrian Gonzalez from becoming a relevant fantasy player.

All in all, Blanks provides excellent power potential in the late rounds of your drafts. For keeper leagues, Blanks will only be 23 this season and should develop more power as he ages. Pencil him in for 18 HRs as a baseline, but don’t be surprised if he hits 22-26 this season. With more time in the majors, Blanks could blossom into a top 30 fantasy outfields as soon as this season.

Soto provides great value in 2010

Every season, previously written off players rise from the ashes and tilt the competitive balance of your fantasy league. There are many factors that can lead to these surprise breakouts; including injuries, opportunity, and players finally living up to their promise. The people in your league that drafted Chris Carpenter, Miguel Montero, and Nelson Cruz were handsomely rewarded for doing their homework. Some breakouts, think Marco Scutaro and Ben Zobrist, were nearly impossible to predict; proving that sometimes even the best projection systems can be fooled. With that in mind, I would like to focus on one player that falls into each category in the coming days. First up: players returning from an injury. Today’s candidate: Geovany Soto.

Players coming off an injury

Players who rewarded owners last season: Aaron Hill, Jorge Posada, Yovanni Gallardo

Player to watch this season: Geovany Soto

Anyone that owned Soto last season, myself included, wanted to pull their hair out by the All-Star break. Soto suffered a huge sophomore slump in 2010.

Upon first glance, almost every one of Soto’s standard stats experienced a rather large dip in 2010. Many of his struggles can be attributed to shoulder and oblique injuries that he suffered throughout the year. While it’s reasonable to expect Soto’s numbers to rise in an injury free year, his advanced stats tell us that 2009 was not a total loss for Soto.

*O-Swing is a stat taken from FanGraphs that tells us the percentage of pitches a batter swung at outside of the strike zone.

Looking at Soto’s advanced stats shows us that Soto actually improved in some key areas last season. His walk rate increased, and he cut his strikeout rate. Soto also improved his batting eye, swinging at fewer bad pitches. A big indicator that his average is likely to rebound is his poor BABIP in 2010. While Soto may not reach a .285 average, it’s certainly possible that he hits .270-.279 this season. Soto currently holds an average draft position of 147 (per Mock Draft Central), and he is the 9th catcher being drafted. If he can recapture the magic of his rookie season, and avoid injuries he could give you Brian McCann production for a much lower price.

Other injured players to remember this season: Jeremy Bonderman, Ervin Santana, Alex Gordon, Rickie Weeks, Adrian Beltre, Jay Bruce

The term "prospect" does not apply

Less than 24 hours after another Aroldis Chapman nearly stole his thunder, Stephen Strasburg proved that he is the best pitching “prospect” in baseball. Strasburg’s Spring Training debut was nothing short of phenomenal. In two innings, Strasburg managed to accumulate two strikeouts while allowing two measly singles to the Detroit Tigers. Despite the strong effort, his team lost the game 9-4 (a feeling Strasburg should probably get used to). Although it was only two innings of work, analysts are salivating over Strasburg’s enormous potential. While Jim Riggleman still suggests Strasburg will begin 2010 in the minors, he left the possibility of Strasburg making the 25 man roster open.

Even though he has never started a regular season game for the Washington Nationals, Strasburg is quickly becoming the face of the franchise. It’s no doubt that Nats fans would relish in the opportunity to see Strasburg start for their team as soon as possible. However, this isn’t the typical die-hard fan crazy-talk. Intelligent analysts like Will Carroll have suggested that Strasburg could pitch in the majors immediately. Unlike most pitching prospects, Strasburg already flashes three plus-pitches, making him incredibly advanced for his prospect status.  Baseball Prospectus’ prospect guru, Kevin Goldstein, suggests Strasburg is already the best pitcher in the entire organization. Typically, analysts are cautious when a team aggressively promotes a top prospect. Strasburg, however, appears to break the mold.

Only injuries held Prior back

It’s pretty rare for a prospect to play the majors less than a year after they are drafted. It’s even rarer for that prospect to be a pitcher. Over the past few seasons, Ryan Zimmerman and Gordon Beckham have successfully made the transition to the major leagues. The last starting pitcher to successfully transition to the majors this early in his career was Mark Prior. After nine starts in the minors, Prior pitched 116.2 innings for the Cubs while striking out 147 batters. Prior clearly had the talent to sustain a long, successful career. Unfortunately, injuries cut Prior’s career short. The fact that analysts are suggesting Strasburg could open the season as a starting pitcher is a testament to his unrivaled potential as a future ace.

Can Strasburg actually succeed in the big leagues? That’s the big question the Nats are debating right now. Strasburg certainly has the potential to excel in the majors right now, but the Nats need to determine whether Strasburg can deal with the pressures that come with being the savior of a franchise at such a young age. If Strasburg can deal with the pressures associated with the transition to the MLB, there is no reason to let his talent go to waste in the minors. With Strasburg, it’s clear that the term “prospect” no longer applies, he already has the talent to succeed in the major leagues.

Much was made of the Cincinnati Reds off-season signing of Aroldis Chapman. Like most Cuban defectors, there were no official scouting reports of Chapman’s repertoire. To those of us outside of the scouting community, most Cuban prospects are relatively unknown. Sure, stories exist of their potential dominance, but until a scouting report is released, we can only make assumptions on hearsay. Thankfully, AOL Fanhouse’s Frankie Piliere gave us a full scouting report of Chapman a few days ago. Needless to say, the report is pretty damn positive, and seems to suggest that Chapman could begin the season in the Major Leagues. For the Reds, that is the 30.25 million dollar question.

According to the report, Chapman flashes two above average pitches (fastball and slider). While the fastball is already receiving national recognition, it looks like the slider is a force to be reckoned with as well. Like most young pitchers, however, his changeup needs to be refined. Regardless, Chapman’s upside should have a lot of scouts salivating over his future potential. Towards the end of the report, Piliere suggest Chapman could open camp as a reliever for the Reds.

Let’s explore this possibility for a minute. While no one wants Dusty Baker to go near this kid’s arm, we’ve seen top prospects break into the majors as relievers and dominate immediately. For example:

• Joba Chamberlain- As a 21 year old, pitched 24 innings in relief and struck out 34 batters. His ERA for the season (in a small, but impressive sample) was .38.
• David Price- Had a 1.93 ERA during the regular season, and a 1.59 ERA in a high leverage, post-season bullpen role.
• Neftali Feliz- Last season, Feliz pitched 31 innings out of the bullpen and finished with a 1.74 ERA and a 38-9 strikeout to walk ratio.

Clearly, this method is highly effective. Since the popular belief suggests relievers can succeed with two plus pitches, it’s easy to see Chapman coming into the Majors and excelling in a high leverage role immediately. On a related note, pitching out of the bullpen would keep Dusty Baker from shredding his arm. Depending on how quickly he can refine his changeup, Chapman could find success as a starter as soon as 2011.

The biggest issue with Chapman is that he is extremely raw. The Reds paid a hefty price to pick up the 21 year old, but he’s the classic high-risk, high-reward player. If the changeup develops properly, and Chapman can stay healthy, the Reds spent the best $30.25 million ever. If Chapman is mishandled, suffers an injury, or just stops developing…he becomes a pretty expensive mistake. Here’s hoping the Reds make the right decision, because this kid might be something special.

Wow, what a day to be a fan of the Chicago Bears! Just hours after the free-agency period began, the Bears have already made some huge moves. It’s fair to say that the day has gotten progressively better with each signing. With the Julius Peppers’ signing imminent, let’s take a look at how these moves will effect the Bears next season.

Julius Peppers- Clearly, Peppers is the biggest prize of the day for the Bears. With Peppers, the Bears get an elite pass rusher, who can wreck havoc on quarterbacks. Peppers should have another great year in 2010, but it will be just as interesting to see how his presence effects other players on the defense. Tommy Harris hasn’t lived up to his promise quite yet, but Peppers will command the double-teams now. I have always been a fan of Alex Brown, and it will be interesting to see if his sack rate rises with the addition of Peppers. The belief that a strong defensive line can shape an entire defense is one of the few football cliches that I can believe in. The best way to make a secondary look better is to put more pressure on the quarterback. Young players like Zack Bowman and Al Afalava should benefit the most.

Even without this signing, the Bears’ defense was expected to improve. Brian Urlacher will return to the lineup after missing the entire season. Urlacher might not be the best linebacker on the team anymore, but the Bears looked lost without Urlacher making defensive adjustments. The media also killed the Bears for having a poor 3rd down defense. If these numbers are true (and I suspect they are), the Bears should bounce back on defense. The fine gentlemen over at Football Outsiders have done research proving that teams tend to improve if they are strong on 1st and 2nd down, but worse of 3rd down. Those are three strong reasons to buy into the Bears’ defense in 2010.

Chester Taylor- Taylor’s signing is a head-scratcher to me. The Bears already have a back that fits Mike Martz’s offensive philosophy in Matt Forte. It appears, however, that Taylor will compliment Forte, but replace him. The Bears paid a lot of money to sign a backup/compliment guy, but both guys can carry the load if the other goes down. As long as this doesn’t take too many carries from Forte, I like the move. Both guys are capable of catching 40+ passes per season too, giving Cutler a lot of options when things break down.

Brandon Manumaleuna- Manumaleuna is really a glorified lineman, which was one of the main reasons the Bears went after him. Although the details of his contract haven’t been released, you can bet that he comes cheaper than most offensive linemen. I love this move for the Bears, they needed good blockers, and they just picked up one of the best blocking tight ends in football. His signing has already been overshadowed today, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays a major role for the Bears in 2010.

What do you think about the Bears’ latest signing? Let us know in the comments.

"Time to Nut Up or Shut Up"

Thank goodness, yes! Tomorrow, four MLB teams will see their first game action since early October. For many fans, Spring Training is the first opportunity to start forming opinions about their team. How will ____  fit it with the team? Is ____ going to experience a resurgence? How will ____ recover from last years injury? Is _____ finally ready to break out? Fans of every team ask these questions each year. Take me for example, I would answer the previous questions: Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones or Alex Rios, Jake Peavy, and Tyler Flowers. Each year, however, analysts advise against forming opinions based on Spring Training stats. In some ways, it makes a lot of sense. Players don’t always face the top competition in Spring Training. Often times, context is the key. That said, what can you actually take away from Spring Training?

Context, context, context

For almost every player, context is essential to determining whether a player is actually experiencing a breakout. For example, if Cameron Maybin hits 5 HRs in Spring Training you might be tempted to think he is ready to explode this season. The big question is, did he hit them off Joe A-Baller or did he best Johan Santana? The same rule applies for pitchers. If Jason Marquis racks up a bunch of Ks in his first start, you need to dig deeper into the facts. Did he face a team at full strength, or was it a split-squad team? Did he rack up those Ks against Mark Reynolds, or Dustin Pedroia? Context is the key for more Spring Training stats. There are, however, a few other things to look for in the Spring.

Reyes' steals are a key factor in his draft slot

Players coming off injuries

Oddly enough, the Mets seem like the best place to start here. Both Johan Santana and Jose Reyes are former fantasy studs that suffered through poor seasons in 2009 because of injuries. Reyes injured his hamstring, which sapped much of his SB value. In order to properly evaluate his health, look at his SB vs CS totals in Spring Training. If he is healthy enough to swipe a few bases, you can probably move him up your draft list. The same goes for Johan Santana. If he comes out pitching well, and eventually shows he can go deeper into games, you might be able to expect a rebound in 2010. Although he wasn’t really injured in 2009, if David Wright hits a bunch of HRs in the Spring, you can bet he becomes a top 10 pick by the time your league drafts.

Take (most) cliches with a grain of salt

Every year, every player comes to camp in the best shape of his life. Fat players have lost 20 pounds in the off-season. That guy that never seemed to care…he dedicated his entire off-season to baseball. Yes, the off-season is a magical time where every player gets exponentially better. More often than not, these stories are just fodder. There are, however, one or two of these cliches I pay more attention to each Spring. The first is: ____ had Lasik eye surgery in the off-season. To my knowledge, no one has done the research to back up how much (if at all) Lasik eye surgery actually helps a player. It makes sense though, better vision probably leads to seeing the ball better, which probably leads to hitting the ball better. From the brief research I have done, it appears that Denard Span had Lasik before his breakout season. It also seems that his teammates Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer also had the surgery performed last off-season. Coming into 2010, Brian McCann had a second surgery to fix his troublesome eyesight.

Cliche number two

____ is working on a new pitch. Being a White Sox fan, I’ve seen both Esteban Loaiza and John Danks benefit mightily from the use of a cutter. Sometimes, a new pitch is all a pitcher needs to complete their repertoire. Keep tabs on the pitchers who claim to be throwing a new pitch during the Spring. If the results are promising, you might want to draft the guy and hope for an improvement. Once again, context is the key. Some coaches will make their pitchers focus on throwing the new pitch exclusively in one start. Repetition is the easiest way to learn a new pitch, but relying on one pitch is a way to get knocked around. This practice at least shows that the coaches are serious about the pitcher mastering a new pitch.

Closer battles are at stake

In doing my fantasy rankings, I have come up with nine closer situations that are less than desirable. In each of these cases, a poor Spring could lead to a diminished role in the upcoming season. The Toronto Blue Jays, for example, have three pitchers that might actually close this season. If Kevin Gregg jumps out to a poor Spring Training, and Jason Frasor performs well, you may have a dark horse closer on your hands. This is also beneficial for oft-injured closers. Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano might perform well when healthy, but these guys always end up in the trainers room. Spring Training gives you an opportunity to see which players will slide into the closer role when injuries strike.

There you have it, Spring Training isn’t entirely worthless. As a matter of fact, there’s actually quite a few things you can take away from Spring Training. While some of the  players’ gains might be marginal, there always seems to be one or two players that seem to carry that breakout into the regular season. Using context, and some of the clues above, you might be able to spot that one player that makes the difference for your team in the upcoming season.

We finally move out of the infield, and into the fantasy outfielder rankings. While most infield positions don’t offer too much depth, the outfield offers a lot of bargains to players who wait. If you need speed late in a draft, you can find cheap steals in Michael Bourn or Juan Pierre. If you want power, you can usually find Jason Kubel or Jay Bruce pretty late. Even if you need a little bit of both, you can take a chance with Alex Rios or Nate McLouth. Since most leagues start 3 outfielders per team, Matt and I have each ranked the top 35 outfielders. Let’s jump straight into it.

Fantasy Baseball Outfielders 2010
Chris Cwik	Matt Montgomery
1. Ryan Braun	1. Ryan Braun
2. Matt Kemp	2. Matt Kemp
3. Carl Crawford	3. Matt Holliday
4. Justin Upton	4. Grady Sizemore
5. Matt Holliday	5. Carl Crawford
6. Grady Sizemore	6. Justin Upton
7. Adam Lind	7. Jacoby Ellsbury
8. Jason Bay	8. Jason Bay
9. Ichiro Suzuki	9. Jayson Werth
10. Jacoby Ellsbury	10. Adam Lind
11. Adam Dunn	11. Curtis Granderson
12. Jayson Werth	12. Andre Ethier
13. Curtis Granderson	13. Nelson Cruz
14. Nelson Cruz	14. Carlos Lee
15. Bobby Abreu	15. Adam Dunn
16. Ben Zobrist	16. Nick Markakis
17. Carlos Lee	17. Ben Zobrist
18. Josh Hamilton	18. Carlos Beltran
19. Nick Markakis	19. BJ Upton
20. BJ Upton	20. Andrew McCutchen*
21. Andre Ethier	21. Manny Ramirez
22. Shin-Soo Choo	22. Ichiro Suzuki
23. Carlos Beltran	23. Shin-Soo Choo
24. Andrew McCutchen*	24. Bobby Abreu
25. Adam Jones	25. Shane Victorino
26. Torii Hunter	26. Michael Bourn
27. Hunter Pence	27. Josh Hamilton
28. Carlos Quentin	28. Alfonso Soriano
29. Carlos Gonzalez*	29. Chris Coghlan*
30. Shane Victorino	30. Adam Jones*
31. Manny Ramirez	31. Carlos Gonzalez*
32. Nate McLouth	32. Raul Ibanez
33. Raul Ibanez	33. Hunter Pence
34. Alex Rios	34. Carlos Quentin
35. Jay Bruce*	35. Torii Hunter
* Denotes Sleepers

Monty’s Thoughts on Individual Players

Ranking the outfield position has been the most difficult, by a wide margin, of all the offensive positions. I say this because ranking specialists like Bourne for their SB ability, Dunn for his HR power, Suzuki for his BA change drastically based on what you need during your draft. A lot of players on this list are 20+ HR, 20+ SB players, e.g. Kemp, Sizemore, Granderson, Upton, Werth, even McLouth and Gonzalez. I’d recommend taking one of those types of players for your team.
Curtis Granderson- Granderson hit 30 HR and had 20 SB last season as a Tiger. Now he is a Yankee, playing in the new Yankee Stadium, and he has every opportunity to hit 30 HR and steal 20 bases again. He isn’t that different than Grady Sizemore, and hitting in a better lineup and ballpark make me consider him higher than Sizemore, but I won’t go that far. He did have a poor BA last year, but I attribute that to having an unlucky BABIP more than anything. If he has a .300 BABIP, which is league average, his BA should be around .270, his career BABIP is .323. He could go .290 with 30 HR, 100 runs, 80 RBI and 20 SB, which are all numbers he has accomplished in his career. That’s second to third round draft value going in the 5th round.
Justin Upton- Upton may be higher on my board than anyone else’s. He is a real-deal talent and broke out last year with 26 HR, 20 SB and a .300 BA in 138 games. His HR/FB rate probably won’t be sustained from last year, but it is reasonable to project 30 HR, 20 SB and a .285 BA, with close to 100 RBI and runs scored. I may overvalue his combined HR and SB totals, but the only players after Upton on my board that have 30 HR and 20 SB potential are Jayson Werth and Nelson Cruz. Werth will turn 30 and Cruz, 29. Upton will be 23 and on the upswing of his career.
Andrew McCutchen- McCutchen is the Pirates only legitimate offensive threat, but he is a real treat to watch. He will hit in the low teens for HR, around 13, but he can steal 30 bases a season, combining his MLB and minor league seasons, he has 30+ SB the last two seasons. He is very similar to BJ Upton, but should hit for a higher average, about 20-30 points higher with about 10 less stolen bases. For those of you, who like BJ Upton, just wait a bit longer and you can draft McCutchen. Finally, his run and RBI totals aren’t that far off from BJ Upton’s.
Alfonso Soriano- I hate Soriano as a fantasy player nowadays. He will be turning 34 this season and he has not stolen more than 20 bases in any of his seasons as a Cub, 2007-present. If he steals more than 15 bases, I will be surprised. So, he doesn’t steal many bases, his batting average should be around .260-.270, so not great, but he doesn’t make up for it in HR, around 25 this season. While 25 HR, with 10 stolen bases and a BA of .265 is ok, I would then ask, how many games will he play? He has played over 135 games one time in the last three years, and he has played in 117 and 109 in the past two seasons. He may be a decent value later on in the draft, if he falls as much as I think he should, but I wouldn’t recommend drafting him ahead of McCutchen.

Chris’ Thoughts on Individual Players

Ichiro Suzuki- In the past, I have been pretty bullish on drafting Ichiro. The problem is, Ichiro is so unique that even some of the best projection systems can’t predict his decline properly. At this point, we just have to accept him for what he is…basically Shane Victorino on crack. The reason Ichiro is so high on my list is the guaranteed .340-.360 batting average he gives you each year. No other player is a lock to hit over .330 expect maybe Albert Pujols. The fact that Ichiro can hit a few home runs and steal some bases is a nice boost too. Drafting Ichiro allows you to ignore batting average for the rest of the draft, and while taking Ichiro gives you poor power numbers, a lot of the cheaper power options have batting average issues. It balances out pretty well.

Bobby Abreu- Here’s another player that gets passed up year after year because of his age. Bobby Abreu isn’t going to hit 30 HRs anymore, but he still has a lot of value. While he is 36 years old, he will still steal around 30 bases, give you 15-20 HRs, and an average around .290. When your other league-mates pass by Abreu, make them pay by getting a great player at a bargain.

Alex Rios- I will end the outfielders by saying that Rios is growing on me this year. Last season, he was absolutely awful. However, he still managed to hit 17 HRs and steal 24 bases. After coming to Chicago, he actually hit lower than the Mendoza Line. While that is not a good sell, it also let’s you know two things. 1. Rios’ season was wrecked before he came to Chicago. Whether it was personal issues or mental issues, Rios was not the same player last season. 2. His terrible average was caused by some bad luck. A player of Rios’ caliber doesn’t hit that poorly over the second half of the season. He will come into this season with few expectations and a clean slate. Based on his draft position, Rios might end up being the biggest riser in the draft after the 2010 season is over.

Here are the topics we used our breath on…

1. Super Bowl Thoughts??? Does it tarnish Manning’s legacy? Is Brees the best QB? Etc etc etc…

2. What’s up with Johnny Damon?

3. Fantasy OF Rankings…thoughts? Sleepers and risers

4. Some top prospect lists are out. Who are some guys you are targeting in drafts? Who do you like short term/long term?

5. Recap of the Wire…talk about some of our favorite shit

6. Cwik’s take on Arctic Monkeys, my thoughts on Talking Heads

Let’s face it, ever since the Janet Jackon/Justin Timberlake scandal in 2004, the Super Bowl halftime shows have been pretty boring. Since 2004, the NFL has picked aging artists that are still living off their past accomplishments. I don’t mean to take anything away from Tom Petty, Bruce Springsteen, Paul McCartney, or the Stones; but this isn’t the 1970s (and in some cases, earlier). Well, last Sunday’s performance by The Who definitely took the cake for lame, sucky halftime show. Like many of the recent Super Bowl halftime vocalists, Roger Daltrey’s pipes aren’t what they used to be. Pete Townshend, on the other hand, looked as if he was incapable of moving on stage. Even though the show was, once again, a big yawn, expect more of the same from the NFL next year. In order to prepare you for disappointment, let’s place the odds on some potential Super Bowl XLV performers.

Lady Gaga

Odds: 100/1

She’s uber-popular right now, and you know it would be a crazy show. This is exactly the opposite of what the NFL is looking for…move along.

Super Bowl Playlist: Just Dance, Poker Face, Bad Romance

Arcade Fire

Odds: 99/1

Hey, they just licensed “Wake Up” to the NFL for charity. Plus, the song was also used to promote Where the Wild Things Are. Considering the cinematic sounds from the band, and it’s size, this would promise to be an epic performance. Fine, it’s a reach, but I can dream can’t I?

Super Bowl Playlist: Keep the Car Running, Wake Up, No Cars Go

The Killers

Odds: 50/1

The Killers are one the few current bands I could see the NFL contacting if they decide to do away with the current “old rocker” policy. They are one of the most popular bands out there, and everything they do is over the top. Sounds like the perfect match for the Super Bowl halftime show. Too bad it won’t happen.

Super Bowl Playlist: When You Were Young, Spaceman, Mr. Brightside

Genesis

Odds: 25/1

Trust me, between Peter Gabriel and Phil Collins, there is no way this one will happen. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if the NFL looked into Genesis. They had a pretty good run back in the day, and they will be inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame on March 15, 2010. A nice combo of past relevance and current newsworthiness, but egos would get in the way.

Super Bowl Playlist: That’s All, I Know What I Like (In Your Wardrobe), Land of Confusion (I Know What I Like is a Gabriel song, so it had to be included…if he were to skip out on the Super Bowl you can include any Collins’ song that is appropriate)

Nickelback

Odds: 15/1

The scariest, yet most believable choice if the NFL decides to change back to current bands. Among many fans and critics, Nickelback is one of the worst bands around. Unfortunately, they are one of the top selling bands of the decade (they ranked 11th). This is a realistic possibility, ladies and gents.

Super Bowl Playlist: It All Sounds The Same, It All Sounds The Same, How You Remind Me

The Police

Odds: 10/1

Technically, Sting has already performed at the Super Bowl halftime show in 2003, but it wasn’t with The Police. They seem to fit the recent trend in almost every way; they used to be really popular, they are still touring…that’s about it I guess. The only issue here is that their catalog isn’t the most exciting collection.

Super Bowl Playlist: Roxanne, Don’t Stand So Close To Me, Message in a Bottle (the NFL probably wouldn’t allow a song about a prostitute, so replace Every Little Thing She Does Is Magic with Roxanne if you see fit)

AC/DC

Odds: 8/1

This makes all the sense in the world for the NFL. AC/DC is way past their prime, but they have also experienced a bit of a resurgence lately. Their first studio album in 8 years, Black Ice, reached number 1 on the album charts in 29 different countries (that’s a record). AC/DC is also releasing a greatest hits album (they don’t want to call it that) in conjunction with Iron Man 2. Sounds like the perfect combination of over-the-hill, yet still kinda relevant. They have to be the favorites.

Super Bowl Playlist: Thunderstruck, Shoot to Thrill, Back in Black

Green Day

Odds: 3/1

Green Day is really the perfect choice for the Super Bowl halftime show. While many fans probably think they are past their prime, Green Day continues to win grammys. They have completely changed their style, and appeal to a much larger audience than they did 10 years ago. Also, they totally sold out in the past few years. Doesn’t the Super Bowl seem like the next logical step?

Super Bowl Playlist: When I Come Around, Boulevard of Broken Dreams, some new song

Well, there you have it. If I was a betting man, I would put my money on Green Day. Have any artists you think I may have missed? Let me know about it…

New Orleans Saints Troy Evans (54) celebrates after winning the Super Bowl XLIV

Before the game started here is what I thought would happen…

-The game would cover the 57 points and possibly be the highest scoring Super Bowl ever

-Colts would win, but the won’t cover the five points

-Brees and Manning would have huge games

-It would be a close game with few punts

-Game would come down to final drive/big turnover

Recap: I wasn’t too hot on my predictions, seeing as that it was a lower scoring game than anticipated and the Saints won by double digits. O well, I wasn’t right, but what else is new

During the game here were my thoughts

Colts:

-The Colts 10-0 first quarter lead didn’t concern me about a blow out, due to Brees and Saints O

- Granted Manning threw the INT that secured the victory for the Saints, his numbers were amazing and he made pretty much every play they needed him too. He completed 69% of his passes for 333 yards on 45 attempts. Sure, Manning deserves some blame, but he is pretty far down on the list of reasons why the Colts lost

-This certainly adds more doubt to Manning’s legacy among the all-time QBs, but to say he is a choker may be true, but you can’t really cite this game for that argument.

-Special teams were not good. They had poor field position the whole game, averaging the ball on their own 12 yard line. A missed field goal with poor punt and kick off returns put Manning and the offense in tough situations to score TDs

-The onside kick is an easy place to blame the Colts, but the Saints won the 50-50 loose ball

-I thought they called a decent game, putting the Colts offense on Manning’s shoulders and Blitzing Brees, but they just didn’t execute on D

-Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, Joseph Addai and Austin Collie had solid all-around games, except for Garcon’s dropped catch when the Colts were up 10-3.

-Dwight Freeney was not 100%, but he made a couple plays to disrupt Brees, other than that he was not heard from

-Their final drive didn’t seem Colts-esque. They misused a timeout, they ran off a lot of time and struggled to punch the ball in the endzone once they got in the red zone. They still would have needed a Christmas Miracle to pull off the win, but with Peyton Manning, you never know what they could do.

Saints:

-They got off to a really slow start, not too surprising if you look at their performances on defense this season in the first quarter

-Sean Payton called an aggressive game (e.g. going for 4th down inside Colts 10 in 1st half and onside kick to start the 2nd half, etc.) and I commend him for that, and it paid off

-Drew Brees played an excellent game, he didn’t turn the ball over, his throws were on the money and he played better as the game went on

-Pierre Thomas broke what seemed like 100 tackles and he certainly helped out Brees in the running and receiving game

-Reggie Bush played a nice game. I thought if anyone would turn the ball over for the Saints it would be Bush, but he held onto the ball in the rushing, receiving and returning game.

-The receivers made Brees look good in this game, as they have all season

-Their O-line gave Brees a ton of time to pass the ball and their run blocking was solid

-Their D was picked apart by Manning and they didn’t do much to slow down the Colts running game. But the INT for TD by Porter is what the Saints have done all year, now the 10th INT for TD this season, and it seems to make up for all the yards they gave up

-Their special teams played great, and will most likely be the most overlooked factor in the win. People will remember the onside kick, but the three field goals by Hartley, good punts and returns added up.

Interesting Notes

-Saints earned this victory and join the Redskins in Super Bowl XXII as the only teams to ever overcome a 10 point deficit in SB history to win.

-Tracy Porter intercepted Manning for the TD, he also intercepted Favre’s final pass this season in the NFC Championship game

Overall

-There were the best two teams in the NFL this season and it billed for a great super bowl

-The game was slowed down a ton with both teams running a lot of high percentage plays and stressing ball control…I was disappointed as a fan because I wanted to see both teams bomb it on each other, but in a game of this magnitude, I understand that both teams didn’t want to make mistakes

-Drives were long and efficient, neither team finished drives great, but each team put themselves in positions to score.

-This game wasn’t too exciting in the sense that there weren’t many big plays. Yea, the interception was a big play, but that was late in the 4th Quarter.

-It seemed like this game moved pretty quickly

Conclusions

-This was a decent Super Bowl, but if you like QB’s and efficiency you would like this more than me. I’d rather see a Super Bowl with a bunch of big plays, trick plays and controversy. This game didn’t really have any of that.

-Peyton Manning’s legacy will continue to be questioned

-Drew Brees solidifies himself as an elite QB and is certainly in the argument for best current QB