Has his luck run out?

Tim Hudson entered 2010 as a crucial player for the Atlanta Braves. Due to injury, Hudson only threw 42.1 innings in the majors last season. While he pitched well in those innings, analysts will always worry about a 35 year old coming off Tommy John surgery. As the season approached, it looked as if the Braves might be asking too much from Hudson. His age, combined with his recent surgery and his projected innings increase, made him a possible injury risk and a candidate for regression as the season progressed. Despite those concerns, Hudson has excelled this season, leading the Braves in wins, WHIP, and ERA. A closer look at his stats, however, reveals a pitcher on the verge of a big regression.

Reasons to worry about Hudson going forward:

• The difference between Hudson’s ERA and FIP (2.40 compared to 4.12) is the largest in the majors right now.
• Hudson’s current K/9 rate of 4.67 is the lowest of his career, and his walk rate is slightly higher than his career numbers.
• His LOB% of 83.4% is one of the highest in the majors, and much higher than his career 74.1% mark.
• Hudson’s .235 BABIP is the second lowest in the majors and 50 points lower than his career average in the category.

Those numbers are scary, and they prove that Hudson has been the beneficiary of an incredible amount of luck this season. While it is logical to believe Hudson will regress soon, there are a few reasons to be optimistic. Hudson is actually posting the highest ground ball rate of his career. While his HR/FB rate is identical to his career average, his 10.4% rate in 2010 is an improvement over his 2008 and 2009 seasons. Hudson is also the type of pitcher that consistently outperforms his FIP. In his previous twelve seasons, Hudson has outperformed his FIP ten times. While the difference between his ERA and FIP has never been this extreme, he probably isn’t as bad his 4.12 FIP suggests.

As David Golebiewski points out, some of Hudson’s peripherals have actually improved as the season has progressed, but even that isn’t enough to save Hudson. On the positive side, even with a regression Hudson has pitched well this season. Even if he posts a 3.98 ERA the rest of the way, very few people will argue with his performance. Tim Hudson has certainly been lucky this season, but no one is arguing that he’s a bad pitcher.

He won't walk!

Once viewed as the centerpiece in the Erik Bedard deal, Adam Jones has fallen on hard times. After increasing his walk rate, while decreasing his strikeout numbers in 2009, Jones was expected to develop even more in 2010. While some of Jones’ counting stats look normal, his plate discipline has completely collapsed this season. With the lowest walk rate of all major league regulars, can Jones rebound after a difficult first half?

While Jones’ .276 average and .453 slugging percentage fit in nicely with his career averages, his .304 on-base percentage is unacceptable for a player of his caliber. Jones currently holds the lowest walk rate among all major league regulars, which does not put him in good company.

 Player                BB%    K%    BABIP   WAR

 Adam Jones            2.7   21.7   .316    1.0

 Yuniesky Betancourt   3.1   13.6   .279    0.0

 A.J. Pierzynski       3.1   7.9    .250    0.8

 Miguel Tejada         3.8   9.8    .287    0.4

 Jose Lopez            3.8  11.6    .256    0.3

At this stage in his career, it’s a huge disappointment that Jones is listed amongst these players. Betancourt and Lopez are utility infielders with 1-2 decent seasons (at best), while Pierzynski and Tejada are on the downside of their lengthy careers. Jones, however, is viewed as a rising star, and a key player in the Orioles resurgence. Jones’ BABIP may seem high when compared to the other players on the list, but Jones has used his speed to beat out 10.2% of infield hits. Even though Jones has stopped walking this season, he has produced the most WAR of any player on the list.

So, what can the Orioles do with Jones? His 6.9% walk rate in 2009 wasn’t great, but it showed that he was capable of developing some plate discipline. After a promising sophomore season, Jones’ junior season has to be viewed as a disappointment. If there is any chance for Jones to develop into a star player, he’s going to have to show some semblance of plate discipline. His 40.1% O-Swing rate shows that he’s swinging at far too many pitches that end up out of the zone. This season has really set Jones’ development back. There is still hope for the young outfielder, but he’s running out of time.

Who is the best of one of the worst divisions in baseball?

The AL Central is one of the weakest divisions in baseball, and for a third straight year there may be a 163^rd game of the season to determine the division winner.

While the Twins got off to a hot start and have led the division for 88 days, it has been the red hot White Sox, 25-5 to finish the 1^st half, that lead in the division at the All Star Break.

The actual standings ultimatly matter in determining playoff teams, but there are more accurate ways to determine how many games a baseball team should have won. The Pythagorean expectation, Pythagenport formula and WAR are more accurate ways of determining wins and losses.

Dave Cameron wrote a great piece on Team WAR vs. Run Differential for evaluating how good a team should be. He points out the limitations of RD, the basis for the Pythagorean expectation, and the higher level of accuracy of Team WAR.

I’ll use Team WAR data to determine who has been the best so far in 2010. The Replacement Team was at 47.4 wins in 2007 and around 46 in 2009. I‘ll go with 46.5 for this data, despite this year is on pace to finish with 42-43 wins

An important note here is that the Twins have played 88 games, while the White Sox have played 87, and the Tigers 86.

With that known, how does the AL Central stack up in terms of WAR?

The White Sox pitching leads MLB in WAR, but is near the bottom in offense, while the Twins and Tigers are in the top half in both categories. The Royals and Indians are struggling this year and are hardly better than a team of replacement players, aka, the Pirates and Astros.

Now what if the standings were a function of WAR converted into wins and losses? This is what it would be close to looking like.

According to WAR, as well as Pythagorean, the Twins have been the best team so far in the division, but the unluckiest, as they trail the White Sox and Tigers.

The Royals and Indians won’t be in the race at the end of the year, but could play the role of spoiler.

From my perspective, it’s the Twins division to lose based on the WAR data above. But Cool Standings has the White Sox projected to win 90 games and the division

Lee is having a unique season.

If Kevin Youkilis is the “Greek God of Walks,” does that make Cliff Lee his mortal enemy? It’s an interesting query to ponder, considering Cliff Lee’s complete refusal to walk batters this season. At this pace, Lee is set to shatter the single season record for K/BB ratio. Given that the record for highest K/BB isn’t as universally celebrated as the single season home run or RBI leaders, let’s take a closer look at Cliff Lee’s historic season.

The current record holder in K/BB rate is Bret Saberhagen, who posted a K/BB rate of 11.00 over 24 starts in 1994. By comparison, in 13 starts this season Cliff Lee’s current K/BB rate sits at 14.83. While the list of K/BB leaders is littered with players from the 1800s, recent players on the list include Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, Ben Sheets, and Carlos Silva. Since it’s difficult to compare players from the 1800s with players today, let’s take a look at how Lee stacks up against the recent control freaks.

A quick look at the table reveals the true dominance of Cliff Lee this season. On a per start basis, Lee is set to post a better WAR than every pitcher on the list except Pedro Martinez. While WAR/GS is a crude way to predict Lee’s WAR going forward, it does tell us how incredible his performance has been in the first half for the Mariners/Rangers. It’s also worth noting that even though he struggled in his Rangers debut, Lee did not give up a walk, increasing his K/BB rate while decreasing his overall BB/9 on the season. Despite a K/9 rate in line with Saberhagen, Lee is on pace to best Saberhagen in every single category in the table. Outside of the big strikeout guys (Schilling and Martinez), Lee may actually outproduce every other player in the table.

Even though K/BB leader isn’t a highly distinguished title, it’s certainly a sign of a player’s dominance in a particular season. No pitcher in the history of baseball has shown the amount of control Lee has exhibited this season. Since Lee’s strikeout rates are only above-average, you might expect batters to make a lot of contact against Lee, leading to more hits and a higher WHIP. This hasn’t been a normal season for Lee, however. The lefty has posted a WHIP of 0.95 this season, the top mark in the league. Some of that can be attributed to luck, but his current BABIP of .291 is actually fairly close to his career average of .305. With the recent trade, however, it’s going to be tough for Lee to match or improve on his numbers going forward. Leaving Safeco (and the Mariners defense) and moving to Texas will affect Lee’s numbers slightly. Despite that move, Lee still has a chance to complete one of the finest seasons by a pitcher. Even if Kevin Youkilis is Cliff Lee’s mortal enemy, I think it’s safe to say that every hitter despises Lee, especially this season.

History repeats itself in Cleveland

*Our webmaster, Keith, usually lurks behind the scenes, making sure we don’t totally screw things up around here. However, as a native Clevelander, he had a few things to say about the state of Cleveland after LeBron’s departure. What he has put together is an exceptional piece about some of the more recent sports developments in Cleveland and how they have affected the city. Needless to say, it’s a must read.

It’s the age old mantra of a Cleveland fan: “Wait Until Next Year”.  It is uttered in unison three times a year by a family of fans once their favorite teams hit the point of no return.  The point at which they know the championship, the spotlight, the best of news for the otherwise troubled, battered, and beaten place they call home will simply not be happening … not this time.

Well, it turns out that for only a second time in the city’s history that phrase has been uttered a fourth in a single year.  As with that prior time, this one was with a passion and pain that can only be truly understood by that family.  As with the prior time, an asterisk went up after ‘Next’, a euphemism for what ultimately may be a lifetime of waiting.

The two times are when Art Modell moved the Browns out of Cleveland and, of course, when LeBron decided to move his talents out of Cleveland.  To be fair, the two are very different.  Cleveland fans are some of the most loyal fans in all of sports, but most of that loyalty is centered on the Browns.  Modell moving the Browns was truly a travesty, but I don’t blame him.  You won’t often hear a Clevelander say that.

Modell moving the Browns was the ultimate ’sports is a business’ argument.  The Indians moved out of Cleveland Municipal Stadium to a nice new tax-payer funded ball park in Jacob’s Field.  The Cavaliers were able to move downtown to Gund Area on the same dime.  And there was Art Modell, having to pay an arm and a leg just to keep his decrepit stadium in one piece.  Either he was going to go under (and the team with him) or something had to give.  The city wouldn’t help him out, so he bailed.  It was a business decision, and it worked out well for him in the end.

The “it’s a business decision” argument is one that almost every small and mid-market sports fan deals with regularly.  It’s why there’s no true bitterness when CC Sabathia chases a ton of money to New York.  It’s expected.  It is to be expected that the smaller market teams, in the case of baseball, are not much more than an extension of the minor league system operated by the big teams.  Sure, they get their chance to shine every so-often, but its usually just mediocrity or worse.  Professional sports is a business.

So then, why is LeBron leaving so different than these other two examples?

Business as Usual?

How can this be a business decision, as LeBron put it, if for the once and probably only time in Cleveland sports history, Cleveland was able to offer the most money?  How can there be an exception that disproves the norm the one time Cleveland is on the other side?

Yes, “King James” can sit in his ‘throne’ on national TV and tell us he was impressed with how the Heat freed up cap space to make Wade, Bosh, and him a reality.  A few years ago the Heat basically said “we’re not going to try to compete in the NBA”, but rather free up some money so they can pin their hopes on getting something better.  It was a sign of weakness, but they got it.  Good gamble.  I wish you luck.

The reality of James’s comment is that what the Heat were doing and what the Cavs were doing in that same time is completely different.  The Cavs were interested in winning.  Danny Gilbert put whatever money he could out there to get LeBron what he needed to win NOW.  He wasn’t playing the ‘wait to win’ game.

Did Gilbert do all he could?  I honestly don’t know.  Did LeBron give up in those final games against the Celtics?  I honestly don’t know.

What I do know is that LeBron saying this was a business decision is ludicrous.  He’s gone to a weaker team, one that gives up when they don’t have a fighting chance!

Unfinished Business

It wasn’t Cleveland that put too much pressure on James because they expected too much.  LeBron, himself, personally guaranteed that he’d bring a championship to Cleveland.  You don’t make promises you are unable or unwilling to keep.  Can Cleveland fans be passionate?  You betcha!!  Will Cleveland fans boo their team?  Oh yes!  It’s not because we expect too much.  We want a championship, nothing less.  What sports fan doesn’t?  The expectation is to win, but most importantly, the expectation is to be and play your best.  Cleveland fans know when their team is not playing their best, and we’ll let you know that. “We’re pulling our weight, why aren’t you?” is the notion behind such a reaction.

The reason LeBron moving his talents is so gut-wrenching is that the city was behind him, united in the quest for that beacon of glory.  The team’s slogan “All for One” told the story.  It was quite literally Clevelanders, as one, fighting for that goal with LeBron leading the charge.  The travesty is not that he’s gone off to pursue other interests, but that he did it before the job was done … before the goal and expectation he himself set was never met.

The Aftermath

I highly recommend you purchase tickets to the first time the Heat visit the Cavs next season, not to cheer or boo LeBron, but to experience the passion and heart of Cleveland fans.  I do thank LeBron for his time.  I do wish him well in his future endeavors.  I hope he gets what we wants out of life and his career.  I will not forgive him for making a promise he was not prepared to keep, or at least owning it in a dignified way.

In the end …

For a city and family of fans that’s had its sports heart torn right out of it twice, to have its hopes shattered, and to have yet another stain on an under-served and undeserved national reputation … yes, it’s personal.

Who goes to the pen?

With the Rockies only a game and a half out of the NL Wild Card, and five games off the NL West lead, you would think the return of one of their best starting pitchers would be a reason for optimism. Unfortunately, the return of Jorge De La Rosa also signals the expulsion of one of the Rockies’ current starters to the bullpen. With all of their starters performing adequately, how should the Rockies solve this sudden abundance of pitching?

While the popular rumor suggests Jhoulys Chacin will be banished to the pen once De La Rosa returns, the rookie has performed quite well in a starting role. Chacin actually has the highest strikeout rate of all Rockies starters with 9.41, more than a batter per inning. His walk rate, 4.21, is a bit worrisome, but he’s limited home runs enough to succeed despite higher than average walk totals.

If Chacin isn’t the right choice, which Rockies starter deserves to be sent to the pen?

(A quick aside, look at those HR/9 numbers! The Rockies starting rotation does an incredible job of limiting home runs despite playing in Coors Field. Cook and Ubaldo (and Chacin thus far) have limited home runs over their careers, while Hammel and Francis each have a career HR/9 of 1.08…pretty darn good.)

A look at the table reveals why this is such a difficult decision. Ubaldo Jimenez is obviously not a candidate to go to the pen, but it’s worth noting that Jason Hammel actually has a lower xFIP than the All-Star. Hammel, likely one of the lesser known Rockies’ starters, gets a decent amount of strikeouts but also displays great control. That combination typically leads to success, making Hammel a good candidate to stay in the rotation.

The two veterans are the most interesting cases here. Neither Aaron Cook or Jeff Francis get a lot of strikeouts, yet both have experienced success at the major league level. Cook relies on a sinker which limits home runs and induced a high percentage of grounders. After missing 2009 due to shoulder surgery, Jeff Francis is displaying excellent control this season. While his strikeouts have been down, Francis is currently posting the highest ground ball rate of his career. Looking at his PitchFx charts may indicate a change in philosophy this season. Francis has thrown fewer fastballs, while opting to throw more change-ups and sliders. His fastball has never been a great pitch, so perhaps the change in philosophy will lead to sustained success for Francis. Either way, the strikeout rate has to rise a little bit as the season progresses. Even though neither pitcher has performed better than Chacin according to WAR, it’s unlikely that the Rockies will send one of their veterans to the bullpen.

That leaves us with Chacin again. It’s clear that he has pitched well enough to remain in the rotation, but it looks as if the “seniority principle” will force Chacin to the bullpen. While Francis and Cook are the most worthy candidates to go to the pen, neither profiles as a great reliever. Cook doesn’t get the strikeouts you need in the late innings, and Francis’ shoulder might not be ready for daily usage patterns. At least Chacin can give you strong strikeout numbers in the 7th/8th innings, and his walk rates might be more bearable in a limited role. At the same time, the Rockies can also limit his innings, preparing him for a larger role in 2011. Chacin has clearly shown that he can succeed as a starting pitcher in the majors, but due to unfortunate circumstances, he will likely be sent to the bullpen in the coming weeks. Then again, once a team has an overabundance of pitching, things always seem to even themselves out. Due to injuries or ineffectiveness, Chacin’s stay in the pen may be short lived.

Already one of the best!

What is the All-Star Game really about? Joe Posnanski ponders about that question in his most recent article.While Posnanski doesn’t answer the question directly, he presents the different opinions of the All-Star Game. When I think about the All-Star Game, I tend to use a combination of two opinions Posnanski presents.

• It’s all about watching the best players in baseball.
• It’s all about watching the best players IN THE FIRST HALF (which is a different thing).

Following that line of reasoning, there is no doubt in my mind that Stephen Strasburg belongs on the NL All-Star Team this season.

Let’s examine the potential arguments against putting Stephen Strasburg on the All-Star team.

1. He hasn’t pitched enough to justify an All-Star selection.

Strasburg has pitched about as much as any reliever on either All-Star team this season. As a matter of fact, the only reliever on the team with more innings pitched than Strasburg is Pittsburgh’s Evan Meek. The skeptics are so quick to point out Strasburg’s lack of playing time, but very few actually seem to realize that most of the relievers selected have actually pitched fewer innings.

2.  He’s pitched well, but it’s a small sample. How do we know he won’t regress?

This argument goes hand in hand with our first point (somewhat). Strasburg has accumulated a larger sample (albeit barely) than most of the other relievers selected. A look at his advanced stats reveals a pitcher that is as good as advertised.

*Minimum of 30 innings pitched this season

Among starting pitchers, Strasburg ranks 1st in K/9, FIP, and xFIP. Those are truly terrifying numbers for any pitcher, especially a rookie. That level of dominance certainly suggests that Strasburg is already one of the best pitchers in baseball, and is worthy of pitching in the All-Star Game.

3. The league will adjust to Strasburg the second time around.

I suppose this part of the argument cannot be proved until Strasburg gains more experience in the major leagues. At the same time, this is Stephen Strasburg we are talking about! The most hyped pitching prospect in baseball since…well, maybe ever. As the stats in the table above show, it’s not as if Strasburg is using “smoke and mirrors” to confuse opponents. Anyone who has watched Strasburg pitch this season can tell you that he already has three plus pitches, and inferior hitters look useless against him. Much like Mark Prior, it appears only injuries can derail Strasburg’s dominance.

4.  He’s young, he will have more opportunities to pitch in the All-Star Game.

Personally, I hope Strasburg goes on to pitch in a number of All-Star Games. The fact is, pitchers are so unpredictable these days, that we can’t be sure Strasburg will remain healthy throughout his career. Perhaps I am overreacting, but because pitching is so uncertain, we can never be 100% sure one guy will remain healthy. If I had to bet, I would guess Strasburg makes a number of All-Star Games throughout his career, but we just never know.

Chances are, Strasburg’s inclusion to the NL Roster would be one of the best things to happen to the MLB. Ratings would probably be higher if Strasburg was on the team. This was the same guy who broke NERD, Carson Cistulli’s method for picking the most exciting baseball games on any given day. Also, and no disrespect to Arthur Rhodes here, most baseball fans would likely rather see Strasburg come out to face Crawford-Hamilton-Morneau in a tie game than Arthur Rhodes. Strasburg’s rise to the majors has been one of the biggest stories of the 2010 season, and this was an opportunity for the “Legend of Strasburg” to grow larger.

Again, Strasburg has already proven that he is a fantastic young pitcher. He will very likely make a number of All-Star Games throughout his career, so I shouldn’t overreact to one snub. While I have dedicated this article to Strasburg, there are many players who were snubbed that were even more deserving than Strasburg this season. I still stand by my premise that Strasburg should have been included on the NL Roster, but (barring health) I’m so glad I will be able to watch his magnificence for many years to come.

Dan Haren could sure use a break, but does he deserve one?

Through 17 starts Dan Haren has a 7-6 record with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. By Haren’s standards, that’s terrible.

29 year old Haren has been a strong SP1 and a top 10 fantasy starter for the two years prior to 2010. Before that he was a strong SP2/low end SP1 for his three years in Oakland.

Standard stats ultimately matter in most fantasy leagues, but the advanced stats can give a better indication of luck vs. skill and what to reasonably project from this point forward.

This season, Haren has a career-high K/9 rate of 8.9 and a BB/9 rate of 1.70. So Haren is limiting his walks and maximizing his K’s. These numbers indicate his standard stats should be better than they are, so where is he coming up short?

His BABIP is a ridiculously high .345, he isn’t helped by his HR rate of 13.5% nor his strand rate of 69.6%. His FIP is 3.90 and more importantly, his xFIP is 3.43.

In terms of opponent’s disciple, Haren’s opponents O-swing rate is at 34.6%, the highest of his career, and 6% better than the MLB average. However, his opponents have a O-contact rate of 61%, better than MLB’s average but worse than his career rate of 53%.

Haren’s skill stats look very promising for a strong second half. He is worth pursuing in a trade, and you could probably get him at a cheaper rate due to his mediocre standard stats. If he is on your team, keep starting him.

If you would an actual projection, ZIPS projects, from now until the end of the season, for Haren to: win 8 games, have an ERA of 3.38, WHIP of 1.11 and strikeout 112hitters.

Finally, when will the Dan Haren show up? He’s been there all year even if his standard stats don’t say so. Baseball is a funny game sometimes

Already on the decline?

Chone Figgins entered 2010 as one of the biggest free agent acquisitions of the off-season. His strong on base percentages, combined with his ability to hit for a high average, made him an intriguing fantasy option. Just the thought of employing Ichiro and Figgins in the 1-2 spots was enough to make many owners (and Mariners’ fans) salivate. Figgins, however, has been a major disappointment this season, hitting .232/.337/.277. With the All-Star Break approaching, can Chone Figgins figure out a way to turn things around?

Figgins may be hitting for a poor average, but he has been able to retain his strong walk rate. Unfortunately, that’s one of the few positives owners can take away from Figgins’ 2010 season. While his walk rate may have remained strong, his strikeout rate has jumped by 4%. The jump in his strikeout rate is especially troubling when you consider Figgins in 32 years old. Very few players with Figgins’ skill set age well, and Figgins is already very close to reaching that steep decline. Combine that with Figgins’ potential loss of bat speed, and you have a player already experiencing signs of age.

Much of Figgins’ increased number of strikeouts can be attributed to his poor success against fastballs in 2010. Last season, Figgins absolutely crushed fastballs, leading to a pitch type value of 20.8, easily the highest of his career. In 2010, Figgins has completely collapsed against fastballs, posting a pitch type value of -8.1, easily the worst of his career. Perhaps it’s just a half season fluke, but it is a concern to see Figgins struggle so much against fastballs.

Figgins current BABIP currently sits 40 points below his career average. While that is typically a good indicator bad luck, Figgins batted ball data is also concerning. His current line drive rate of 18.7 would rank as the lowest of his career, meaning he isn’t hitting the ball as well this season. A look at his Z-Contact% reveals a troubling trend as well. Figgins, who had posted five straight seasons of Z-Contact% in the 90s, has currently fallen to 89.5% on the season, his lowest rate since 2004.

That said, there is no doubt Figgins is experiencing some bad luck in 2010. His BABIP should rise, leading to a better counting stats. He has still displayed solid speed numbers, leading to 21 stolen bases. However, the numbers still say that Figgins is a player on the decline. The increased strikeout rate, combined with the poor performance on fastballs, screams loss of bat speed. Figgins’ high walk rate will offset some of his struggles this season, but what happens when pitchers adjust and start pounding the zone with fastballs? Figgins still has some value in fantasy leagues, but his days of being a top option are numbered.

Is he back?

As the trade deadline approaches, the contenders will scramble to add that one piece that could put them over the top this season. Because pitching is always in demand, Fausto Carmona has emerged as one of the elite trading chips this year. Carmona, who has been linked to the Twins and Mets, currently sports a 3.64 ERA, the lowest since he won 19 games in 2007. Below the surface, however, there are concerns about Carmona’s ability to sustain this level of success. With players like Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee rumored to be on the block, is Fausto Carmona a pitcher teams should be excited about acquiring?

In 2007, Fausto Carmona won 19 games for the Indians while posting a 3.06 ERA and preventing home runs. To the stat-oriented analyst, Carmona was an interesting pitcher. While he didn’t strike out many batters, he possessed an excellent ground ball rate, and the ability to limit home runs. While few expected Carmona to replicate his 2007, his next two seasons were nothing short of terrible. In 2008, Carmona’s strikeout rate fell to 4.33, nearly unacceptable for a starting pitcher. While his strikeout rate climbed in 2009, his ERA ballooned to 6.32, leading many to wonder if 2007 was a luck-fueled aberration. In 2010, however, his 3.64 ERA has some analysts talking themselves into a Fausto Carmona resurgence. A look at some of his advanced metrics reveals a pitcher is walking a tightrope.

Although Carmona has improved his xFIP in 2010, his strikeout rate has once again plummeted to an unacceptable level. By comparison, both Jeremy Guthrie and Rodrigo Lopez have struck out a similar amount of batters, and very few analysts are talking up those two as trade targets. Carmona’s current BABIP is also the lowest of his career, which is a big cause for concern for teams that are targeting him. For a pitcher that pitches to contact as much as Carmona, that number should rise quite a bit, although he has inexplicably posted low BABIP rates throughout his career.

If you are looking for positives, Carmona has cut his walk rate quite a bit this season. While a walk rate of 3.08 places him among Brian Matusz and Tommy Hanson, his K/BB ranks in the bottom 20 in all of baseball. One thing Carmona continues to excel at is limiting home runs. While there is a lot of value in limiting the long ball, it doesn’t cover up his other deficiencies.

All told, Carmona’s improvement in 2010 is marginal at best. Due to his low strikeout rates, Carmona will always rely on defense and luck in order to succeed. This season, Carmona has excelled despite numbers that suggest he isn’t much of a different pitcher. If his track record gives any indication as to whether Carmona can continue to succeed with his current peripherals, it’s probably best for teams to look elsewhere for pitching this season.