Who is the best of one of the worst divisions in baseball?

The AL Central is one of the weakest divisions in baseball, and for a third straight year there may be a 163^rd game of the season to determine the division winner.

While the Twins got off to a hot start and have led the division for 88 days, it has been the red hot White Sox, 25-5 to finish the 1^st half, that lead in the division at the All Star Break.

The actual standings ultimatly matter in determining playoff teams, but there are more accurate ways to determine how many games a baseball team should have won. The Pythagorean expectation, Pythagenport formula and WAR are more accurate ways of determining wins and losses.

Dave Cameron wrote a great piece on Team WAR vs. Run Differential for evaluating how good a team should be. He points out the limitations of RD, the basis for the Pythagorean expectation, and the higher level of accuracy of Team WAR.

I’ll use Team WAR data to determine who has been the best so far in 2010. The Replacement Team was at 47.4 wins in 2007 and around 46 in 2009. I‘ll go with 46.5 for this data, despite this year is on pace to finish with 42-43 wins

An important note here is that the Twins have played 88 games, while the White Sox have played 87, and the Tigers 86.

With that known, how does the AL Central stack up in terms of WAR?

The White Sox pitching leads MLB in WAR, but is near the bottom in offense, while the Twins and Tigers are in the top half in both categories. The Royals and Indians are struggling this year and are hardly better than a team of replacement players, aka, the Pirates and Astros.

Now what if the standings were a function of WAR converted into wins and losses? This is what it would be close to looking like.

According to WAR, as well as Pythagorean, the Twins have been the best team so far in the division, but the unluckiest, as they trail the White Sox and Tigers.

The Royals and Indians won’t be in the race at the end of the year, but could play the role of spoiler.

From my perspective, it’s the Twins division to lose based on the WAR data above. But Cool Standings has the White Sox projected to win 90 games and the division

One of the most valuable players in the league at 21, the sky is the limit for Justin Upton

Before you read — I will be doing a series of “Future HOF” where I claim that a certain player will be in the HOF at the end of his career.   This will be mostly baseball related.   I will examine players that aren’t shoe in’s – so I won’t be analyzing John Smoltz.  I want to get a feel for what everyone thinks.

When I was 19 years old, I made the biggest claim of my life.  I told a roommate that a kid our age would be the best outfielder our generation would ever see.

Yes, the player had played a handful of games in the majors, and was 19, so you know he had talent.  It all depended on how quickly he would rise to stardom.

Now at 21, Justin Upton is already a star.

We all know the story.  The 6′2” 205 lb. outfielder from Norfolk, VA had accolades from the beginning.  Upton was drafted No. 1 overall straight out of high school.  Before jumping straight from AA to the majors, he was named the USA Today Minor League Player of the Year.

Upton was a five-tool player from the start.  He had speed, whether it was in the outfield or on the bases.  He had a cannon for an arm, a huge power bat, a good glove and would definitely hit for average.  Upton was called up in 2007 briefly to play in place of the injured Carlos Quentin.  There were concerns that the promotion was too early, and that the young Upton was too raw.

Even in 2008, there were people saying that he could be a bust with the early promotion.  He didn’t make contact enough in 2007 or 2008, striking out 26.4% in 2007 and 34% in 2008.  Scouts and analysts said that he would never reach the level of a Hall of Fame player with those strikeout totals.

Then 2009 hit and Upton blossomed.  He made his first All-Star team by producing a .301/.374/.544 line.  He has a ridiculous .398 wOBA, good enough for fifth best among outfielders.  He made the necessary adjustments by cutting down his strikeouts to 26%.  He’s also regained the five-tool label by stealing 16 bases so far this year – after only one in 2008.

By any statistical metric, you know Justin Upton is having a great season.  But the numbers that most fans don’t look at show that he’s having an even better campaign.  Upton is tearing the cover off of the ball, but many aren’t able to watch him play right field every day.  Upton has a 9.0 UZR/150, which is ranked in the top 10 for all outfielders.  His value is absurd — at 21, he’s four wins better than your replacement level player.  If we use Tom Tango’s formula for dollar value, he’s been worth $19.36 MM.  Did I mention he is 21?

With all the steroid talk going on around the league, it’s so refreshing to see a young, clean player have an amazing season.

Will he be a Hall of Famer?  It’s probably too early to tell, even though I think he will eventually make it.  But if Upton keeps up the pace until he’s 31, he will have the best start to a career outside of Albert Pujols.  The ability to make adjustments and contribute all over the field makes him so valuable.   What do you guys think?