Archive for category Baseball
Tim Hudson and Luck
Posted by Chris Cwik in Baseball, Fantasy on August 1, 2010
Has his luck run out?
Tim Hudson entered 2010 as a crucial player for the Atlanta Braves. Due to injury, Hudson only threw 42.1 innings in the majors last season. While he pitched well in those innings, analysts will always worry about a 35 year old coming off Tommy John surgery. As the season approached, it looked as if the Braves might be asking too much from Hudson. His age, combined with his recent surgery and his projected innings increase, made him a possible injury risk and a candidate for regression as the season progressed. Despite those concerns, Hudson has excelled this season, leading the Braves in wins, WHIP, and ERA. A closer look at his stats, however, reveals a pitcher on the verge of a big regression.
Adam Jones Also Hates Walks
Posted by Chris Cwik in Baseball, Fantasy on July 17, 2010
He won't walk!
Once viewed as the centerpiece in the Erik Bedard deal, Adam Jones has fallen on hard times. After increasing his walk rate, while decreasing his strikeout numbers in 2009, Jones was expected to develop even more in 2010. While some of Jones’ counting stats look normal, his plate discipline has completely collapsed this season. With the lowest walk rate of all major league regulars, can Jones rebound after a difficult first half?
AL Central WAR
Who is the best of one of the worst divisions in baseball?
The AL Central is one of the weakest divisions in baseball, and for a third straight year there may be a 163rd game of the season to determine the division winner.
While the Twins got off to a hot start and have led the division for 88 days, it has been the red hot White Sox, 25-5 to finish the 1st half, that lead in the division at the All Star Break.
| Actual Standings | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 AL Central | Wins | Losses | Win% | GB | ||||
| Chicago Sox | 49 | 38 | .563 | - | ||||
| Detroit | 48 | 42 | .558 | .5 | ||||
| Minnesota | 46 | 42 | .523 | 3.5 | ||||
| Kansas City | 39 | 49 | .443 | 10.5 | ||||
| Cleveland | 39 | 54 | .386 | 15.5 | ||||
The actual standings ultimatly matter in determining playoff teams, but there are more accurate ways to determine how many games a baseball team should have won. The Pythagorean expectation, Pythagenport formula and WAR are more accurate ways of determining wins and losses.
Dave Cameron wrote a great piece on Team WAR vs. Run Differential for evaluating how good a team should be. He points out the limitations of RD, the basis for the Pythagorean expectation, and the higher level of accuracy of Team WAR.
Cliff Lee Hates Walks
Posted by Chris Cwik in Baseball on July 13, 2010
Lee is having a unique season.
If Kevin Youkilis is the “Greek God of Walks,” does that make Cliff Lee his mortal enemy? It’s an interesting query to ponder, considering Cliff Lee’s complete refusal to walk batters this season. At this pace, Lee is set to shatter the single season record for K/BB ratio. Given that the record for highest K/BB isn’t as universally celebrated as the single season home run or RBI leaders, let’s take a closer look at Cliff Lee’s historic season.
Who Gets Booted From The Rockies Rotation?
Posted by Chris Cwik in Baseball, Fantasy on July 6, 2010
Who goes to the pen?
With the Rockies only a game and a half out of the NL Wild Card, and five games off the NL West lead, you would think the return of one of their best starting pitchers would be a reason for optimism. Unfortunately, the return of Jorge De La Rosa also signals the expulsion of one of the Rockies’ current starters to the bullpen. With all of their starters performing adequately, how should the Rockies solve this sudden abundance of pitching?
Stephen Strasburg Should Be An All-Star
Posted by Chris Cwik in Baseball on July 5, 2010
Already one of the best!
What is the All-Star Game really about? Joe Posnanski ponders about that question in his most recent article.While Posnanski doesn’t answer the question directly, he presents the different opinions of the All-Star Game. When I think about the All-Star Game, I tend to use a combination of two opinions Posnanski presents.
- It’s all about watching the best players in baseball.
- It’s all about watching the best players IN THE FIRST HALF (which is a different thing).
Following that line of reasoning, there is no doubt in my mind that Stephen Strasburg belongs on the NL All-Star Team this season.
When Will The Real Dan Haren Show Up?
Dan Haren could sure use a break, but does he deserve one?
Through 17 starts Dan Haren has a 7-6 record with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. By Haren’s standards, that’s terrible.
29 year old Haren has been a strong SP1 and a top 10 fantasy starter for the two years prior to 2010. Before that he was a strong SP2/low end SP1 for his three years in Oakland.
Standard stats ultimately matter in most fantasy leagues, but the advanced stats can give a better indication of luck vs. skill and what to reasonably project from this point forward.
What’s Wrong With Chone Figgins?
Posted by Chris Cwik in Baseball, Fantasy on June 29, 2010
Already on the decline?
Chone Figgins entered 2010 as one of the biggest free agent acquisitions of the off-season. His strong on base percentages, combined with his ability to hit for a high average, made him an intriguing fantasy option. Just the thought of employing Ichiro and Figgins in the 1-2 spots was enough to make many owners (and Mariners’ fans) salivate. Figgins, however, has been a major disappointment this season, hitting .232/.337/.277. With the All-Star Break approaching, can Chone Figgins figure out a way to turn things around?
What’s With All The Fausto Carmona Hype?
Posted by Chris Cwik in Baseball, Fantasy on June 28, 2010
Is he back?
As the trade deadline approaches, the contenders will scramble to add that one piece that could put them over the top this season. Because pitching is always in demand, Fausto Carmona has emerged as one of the elite trading chips this year. Carmona, who has been linked to the Twins and Mets, currently sports a 3.64 ERA, the lowest since he won 19 games in 2007. Below the surface, however, there are concerns about Carmona’s ability to sustain this level of success. With players like Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee rumored to be on the block, is Fausto Carmona a pitcher teams should be excited about acquiring?
The Arrival of Jay Bruce
Posted by Chris Cwik in Baseball, Fantasy on June 26, 2010
Bruce has quietly improved this season.
Jay Bruce entered 2010 as a bit of an enigma. Once a top prospect, Bruce has been a disappointment in the majors due to a low average and on-base percentage. There was a silver lining, however. Bruce’s career BABIP of .262 ranked as one of the lowest in baseball, meaning his struggles were likely a result of bad luck. Unfortunately, Bruce also displayed a severe platoon split against lefties throughout his young career. In his third season, Bruce has made progress in both areas, and is on his way to fulfilling his lofty expectations.
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